ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
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A week ago, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) hiked its policy interest rate another whopping 500 basis points to 40%. The response in currency markets was a collective yawn. The CBRT explained that while inflation performed in-line with expectations, “the existing level of domestic demand, the stickiness in services inflation, and … Read more
After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s “war of economic independence” came to an official end, I waited for evidence that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) would get serious about fighting inflation. The monetary evidence may have arrived on August 24th in the form of a monster rate hike from 17% to 25%. In … Read more
A month ago I asked “how long can a parabolic Turkish lira last?” The answer turned out to be a month. However, the path to the end included two false conclusions and a massive blow-off top. The trading in the Turkish lira (USD/TRY) provided a new lesson in parabolic price action. Parabolic trading is inherently … Read more
Financial markets hate surprises. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan slammed currency markets to start the week. Two Days after the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) hiked interest rates again (this time from 17 to 19%), Erdogan replaced the governor. The sacking occurred on Saturday, but the market clearly needed a lot more time … Read more
In late August, I wrote about a bad turn for the Turkish lira. Over two months later, the lira is around the same price levels in USD/TRY and EUR/TRY – two key pairs for the lira – but the path to this point has featured plenty of volatility. From a technical perspective, USD/TRY is testing … Read more
The honeymoon seems already over for the new governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). After the promotion of Murat Uysal to governor of the CBRT, I concluded the Turkish lira would weaken. That weakness lasted all of one day, and the lira proceeded to bounce around in a range. Next … Read more
Perhaps President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was right all along? It seems rate cuts are exactly what Turkey needs. As global central banks pedal backward on monetary policy, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) stands out with its extremely high rates. The CBRT got here as part of a fight against persistent and … Read more
The week of trading in foreign exchange began with the shock announcement of a leadership change at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Murat Uysal, the Deputy Governor since June 9, 2016, was promoted to Governor. Uysal replaced Murat Cetinkaya who had been Governor since April, 2016. Cetinkaya actively resisted calls from … Read more
On May 10th, the Turkish lira finally sprung back to life after USD/TRY hit a 7-month high. The move came right on the heels of another move by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to adjust its reserve requirements in a way to support the currency: “Considering the latest developments in financial … Read more
The British pound (FXB) is not the only currency trading in well-defined chaos. The Turkish lira stumbled into the week in the wake of the political uncertainty and forex chaos caused by the cancellation of the results of Istanbul’s recent municipal elections. USD/TRY soared at one point about 3%. The renewed political uncertainty reportedly comes … Read more