Bonds

Stock Market Stalls At Overbought Threshold As Momentum Stocks Retreat – Above the 40 (September 13, 2019)

AT40 (T2108) has stalled perfectly at the overbought threshold of 70%.

AT40 = 67.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month high)VIX = 13.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Overbought Overrules Times like these remind me of the significance of the overbought line. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks … Read more

A Banner Month for Home Builders Even As the Stock Market Churned

The iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF (ITB) closed out August just under its 13-year high. August delivered a healthy 4.8% gain.

While the month of August was full of sharp trading action which left the S&P 500 (SPY) trapped in a trading range, home builders emerged stronger. The 4.8% August gain for iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF (ITB) far out-performed the S&P 500 (SPY) which languished with a 1.8% loss. Ironically, the stock market’s small … Read more

A Stock Market Stuck In An Obvious Trading Range Still Produces A Rich Set of Expectations – Above the 40 (August 29, 2019)

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more

Christmas In August Fails to Prevent A Test of the Month’s Extremes – Above the 40 (August 14, 2019)

The S&P 500 (SPY) printed a marginally new low for the month after a 2.9% loss.

AT40 = 26.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 22.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary When the S&P 500 (SPY) bounced away from the oversold threshold last week, it left behind an extreme … Read more

A Manic Stock Market Leaves Behind An Extreme August Drawdown – Above the 40 (August 9, 2019)

Much ado about nothing? The 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows the gory details of a manic swoon to a near flat close for the week.

AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more