An Enticing and Risky Bounce Off the Oversold Threshold – Above the 40 (August 6, 2019)

AT40 (T2108) bounced sharply away from the oversold threshold off 20%.

AT40 = 30.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.2 (the day before it closed at 24.6 and a 7-month high)Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary Almost Oversold I underestimated the market’s readiness to … Read more

Forex Critical: Economic Fireworks Push Monetary Policy Further Into Retreat

The euro vs the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) reversed its 200DMA breakout, but it still has higher highs and higher lows since the April/May double-bottom.

In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more

Stock Market Indices Break South On Expanded Border Tensions – Above the 40 (May 31, 2019)

AT40 = 23.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a low of 20.7%)AT200 = 36.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2 1/2 month low)VIX = 18.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary So much for the potential for follow-through on bullish divergence! Perhaps the failure is … Read more

Above the 40 (April 26, 2019) – Stock Market Highs Continue Cradling Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 61.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral (change from bearish) Stock Market Commentary The week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represents well the state of the stock market: … Read more

Above the 40 (April 18, 2019) – Exhausted Buyers and Reluctant Sellers Make A Stock Market Dribble

AT40 = 58.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.1Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the previous week looking ready to lunge for its all-time high. Surprisingly, buyers decided to take a rest, … Read more