Housing Market Review – A Notable Change In Tone (August, 2017)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in July, 2017 for June, 2017. The month from there marked a significant change in tone for home builders. The change in tone starts with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and its failure to hold support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first … Read more

Tri Pointe Group Puts Its Balance Sheet On the Line

In its Q3 2015 earnings report, TRI Pointe Group, Inc. (TPH) reported $97.0M in cash and cash equivalents. Thanks to real estate inventories, total assets come to $3.1B. Source: TRI Pointe Group, Inc. On January 27, 2016, TPH decided to put that balance sheet on the line by authorizing a buyback of $100M that is … Read more

Chart Carnage: Home Builders Under Duress

When I decided to start writing a monthly summary of the status of the housing market, I had assumed that housing was going to remain in or settle into a general holding pattern. I assumed little was going to happen to the upside or the downside for a while. Under those conditions, it did not … Read more

Million-Dollar Plus Homes and A Race for Affordability In California

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last month, I wrote about the strong sales activity in million dollar plus homes in Canada that are occurring despite poor jobs growth in the country. It was an interesting study … Read more

Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider … Read more

TRI Pointe Homes Versus Whirlpool: A Disconnect In Response to Bullish Housing-Related Reports

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 15, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) TRI Pointe Homes (TPH) reported very strong earnings for the second quarter of 2013. {snip} Year-over-year results were strong, and TPH raised guidance for the year. {snip} Based on strong demand, … Read more

Homebuilder Price Performance Diverges in 2013 As Shorts Continue An Uneven Retreat

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 5, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In late November, 2012, I made a list of my homebuilder picks for 2013. I combined valuation, price changes, and short interest to build the list. Almost 6 months later, it … Read more

California Soon To Experience A New Construction Boom

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 10, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} …a fascinating story about a 2-man team, a real estate agent and a contractor, who have gone from boom to bust and hopeful boom. They went from a whiteboard full … Read more

A Concentrated Way to Play Rapid Price Appreciation In The California Housing Market

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) TRI Pointe Homes (TPH) is a 4-year old company based in Irvine, California that on January 31, 2013 became the first homebuilder to go IPO since 2004. The Starwood Fund, managed … Read more