The Japanese Yen Vies For Center Stage

To start the new year, I wrote a piece titled “The Japanese Yen Flashes Red for 2016.” At the time, I used charts of the Japanese yen (FXY) trading against various currencies to demonstrate how the yen was asserting itself in currency markets. Two weeks later, speculators have provided confirmation of the increasing interest in … Read more

(Vainly) In Search of the Correlation Between Oil and the S&P 500

We hear the relationship claimed so casually and so frequently, we probably no longer give it a second thought. For example, on December 30th, the S&P 500 (SPY) lost 0.7%. Searching for an explanation, CNBC ran the all-too familiar headline “Dow closes down triple digits as oil slide weighs.” Oil lost 3.3% on the day … Read more

T2108 Update (December 8, 2015) – A Mild Down Day Hides Expanded Market Weakness

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Some Bullish Solar Stock Setups

November 16, 2015 was a strange trading day as U.S. stock markets rallied in the wake of the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris. There were really big moves in even some big cap stocks. The S&P 500 (SPY) reversed all of its losses on Friday and then some. This is the strong and supportive context … Read more

T2108 Update (November 6, 2015) – A Toppy Feeling In the Market Even As Individual Stocks Shine

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

How the S&P 500’s Current Breakdown Increases the Odds of Further Selling

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 8, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) This piece was inspired by a model of the stock market created by Daniel Moore in Seeking Alpha titled “Dow Sends Rare Signal At The August 2015 Month-End Close.” Moore’s model … Read more

T2108 Update (October 19, 2015) – Ending the August Angst With An Exclamation Point

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (October 1, 2015) – Stretching Oversold Conditions, Buyers Show Up for the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more