From Loitering to Breakout: Stocks Look for Bad News Worthy of Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 21, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is officially in bizarro world. The stock market is breathlessly rallying in anticipation of rate cuts that will come … Read more

Above the 40 (October 30, 2018) – A Bullish Divergence Transforms to A Near End to Oversold Conditions

AT40 = 17.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 10th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period AT200 = 29.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 23.4 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The small bullish divergence to start the week received follow-through in the … Read more

Above the 40 (October 10, 2018) – The Stock Market Cascades Down to Oversold Territory

AT40 = 16.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (a drop of 14.2 percentage points to an 8-month low and the first day of an oversold period) AT200 = 38.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a drop of 7.6 percentage points to a 6-month low) VIX = … Read more

Above the 40 (September 28, 2018) – An Over-Stretched Market With Notable Anchors

AT40 = 41.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market is stretched yet again based on AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages … Read more

Above the 40 (September 7, 2018) – A Shaky and Stretched Stock Market Redux

AT40 = 48.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.9 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Almost a month ago, the stock market was in a similar technical position to the one it is in now. At … Read more

Above the 40 (July 20, 2018) – Bored With Economic Wars: The S&P 500 Meanders Through Minefields

AT40 = 57.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = N/A% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary I remain fascinated by the S&P 500’s increasing resilience to worsening macro-economic headlines. The apparent boredom with the headlines about trade wars, … Read more

Above the 40 (June 27, 2018) – S&P 500 Breakdown Confirms Earlier Bearish Signals

AT40 = 48.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.9 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The trading action this week confirmed the bearish change in trading that occurred when AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above … Read more

Above the 40 (June 22, 2018) – Stock Market Bears Increase the Pressure

AT40 = 63.1% ƒof stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 13.8 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I described how growing global trade wars are creating widening divergences in … Read more

Above the 40 (May 4, 2018) – The Apple Temptation of the Stock Market

AT40 = 53.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.8 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary I was right to be bearish last week…until the very last day when all at once the market reversed almost all … Read more

Above the 40 (March 29, 2018) – A Stock Market Bent Out of Shape But Not Quite Broken

AT40 = 38.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 42.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The bears did their best to spook the market, but they failed to break it down. The foundations felt wobbly for most … Read more