ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
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On April 1, 2010, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) apparently intervened to arrest the appreciation of its currency against the euro, and I wondered whether this action would be as futile as all the other interventions this year. So far, so good for the SNB, as the previously persistent buyers of Swiss francs have all … Read more
For most of this year, I have interpreted the Federal Reserve’s policy to maintain “exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period” as the equivalent of low rates for at least the next six months from each new confirmation. This interpretation came from a January interview with New York Federal Reserve … Read more
A catalyst for working off the market’s over-extended and over-bought conditions remains elusive. The Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy statement essentially blessed the market’s stubborn “melt-up.” The statement did not provide the incremental “hawkishness” as I was expecting given last month’s surprise discount rate hike. In fact, this statement’s reference to low rates for an … Read more
(A version of this post also appears on Inflation Watch) The Federal Reserve essentially warned us in its most recent written testimony to the House of Representatives that part of its exit strategy from emergency monetary measures is to increase the spread between the funds rate and the discount rate. This evening, the Fed did … Read more
On Friday, Nightly Business Report’s Susie Gharib interviewed Thomas Hoenig, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Gharib focused on Hoenig’s objection to the latest Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy. Hoenig basically explained that he wants the Fed to adopt a flexible policy stance now that the economy appears to be recovering: … Read more
The Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by leaving rates unchanged at 3.75%. Forecasts pegged the RBA for another 25 basis point increase. The markets reacted with an instant and steep drop in the Australian dollar against all major currencies. For example, the Australian dollar dropped over 1% against the U.S. dollar. (See chart … Read more
For those people counting down to the first rate hike from the Federal Reserve, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley offered an interpretation of “extended period” for Susie Gharib of Nightly Business Report: “GHARIB: Bill, everybody wants to know what do you mean by extended period? Would you please define that for us? DUDLEY: … Read more
(repost from January 4, 2010) Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Atlanta, Georgia. In his speech titled “Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble,” Bernanke presented statistical (econometric) analyses to demonstrate that monetary policy contributed very little to the recent housing bubble in the U.S. … Read more
Good (or not as bad as expected) economic news has typically garnered selling in the U.S. dollar and buying in the stock market. On Friday, the good news that November’s monthly change in U.S. non-farm payrolls came in essentially flat sent the S&P 500 soaring as high as 1.7%. However, the dollar index also soared, … Read more
On Friday, Federal Reserve Governor wrote an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal titled “The Fed’s Job Is Only Half Over.” In this piece, he suggested that while “…longer-term inflation expectations are stable, and economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal-funds rate for an extended period…prudent risk management indicates … Read more