Above the 40 (August 10, 2018) – Facing Fresh Macro Challenges and Lacking Technical Confirmations, the S&P 500 Stalls Under All-Time Highs

AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The indicators barely changed from the last Above the 40 post, but the technical winds are likely changing yet again. A little … Read more

Above the 40 (July 27, 2018) – Stock Market Weaknesses Confirm Earlier Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 49.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) managed to gain on the week, but it was not easy. Each day of the week delivered new … Read more

Above the 40 (July 6, 2018) – Bears Overstay Their Welcome

AT40 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Until Friday’s 0.8% gain on the S&P 500 (SPY) in the wake of another strong jobs report, I was still expecting the … Read more

Above the 40 (June 22, 2018) – Stock Market Bears Increase the Pressure

AT40 = 63.1% ƒof stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 13.8 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I described how growing global trade wars are creating widening divergences in … Read more

Above the 40 (April 27, 2018) – The Market’s Stop Signs Fail to Yield to A Busy Earnings Week

AT40 = 54.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 15.4 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary Source: My Daughter A week ago, I finally changed my short-term trading call: I went from neutral to cautiously bearish. When … Read more

Intel Post-Earnings: Current Options Pricing Vs. Historical Performance

Over the last two earnings reports, Intel (INTC) experienced historic 1-day gains. For January earnings that reported on Q4 results, INTC enjoyed a 10.7% gain the next day. For October earnings that reported on Q3 results, INTC enjoyed a 7.4% pop. These 1-day post-earnings gains were Intel’s 3rd and 7th highest 1-day post-earnings gains since … Read more

Above the 40 (April 6, 2018) – Barbarians Posturing At the S&P 500’s Support

AT40 = 37.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The week ended badly with a 2.2% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY). The week began with the exact same … Read more

Above the 40 (April 2, 2018) – Chipping Away At the Market Positives On the Way to Oversold

AT40 = 27.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 36.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 2-year closing and intraday lows) VIX = 23.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40, I tried to highlight the positives even as the negatives … Read more

Above the 40 (March 26, 2018) – Buyers Buoy the Stock Market

AT40 = 35.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (jumped from 25.6%) AT200 = 43.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (up from 2-year closing low at 37.5%) VIX = 21.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary This is truly a market that is from another planet. In my … Read more

Above the 40 (February 2, 2018) – Janet Yellen Exits As Oversold Market Conditions Loom

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.3 (28.5% increase!) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary “We cannot tolerate pervasive and persistent misconduct at any bank and the consumers harmed by Wells Fargo expect that robust … Read more