Above the 40 (September 28, 2018) – An Over-Stretched Market With Notable Anchors

AT40 = 41.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market is stretched yet again based on AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages … Read more

Above the 40 (September 14, 2018) – Stock Market’s Unenthusiastic Rebound from Stretched Conditions

AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I flipped cautiously bullish last week. As I suspected, the prospects for a bounce were not as good as the previous … Read more

Above the 40 (August 10, 2018) – Facing Fresh Macro Challenges and Lacking Technical Confirmations, the S&P 500 Stalls Under All-Time Highs

AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The indicators barely changed from the last Above the 40 post, but the technical winds are likely changing yet again. A little … Read more

Above the 40 (July 27, 2018) – Stock Market Weaknesses Confirm Earlier Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 49.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) managed to gain on the week, but it was not easy. Each day of the week delivered new … Read more

Above the 40 (July 6, 2018) – Bears Overstay Their Welcome

AT40 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Until Friday’s 0.8% gain on the S&P 500 (SPY) in the wake of another strong jobs report, I was still expecting the … Read more

Above the 40 (June 22, 2018) – Stock Market Bears Increase the Pressure

AT40 = 63.1% ƒof stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 13.8 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I described how growing global trade wars are creating widening divergences in … Read more

Above the 40 (April 27, 2018) – The Market’s Stop Signs Fail to Yield to A Busy Earnings Week

AT40 = 54.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 15.4 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary Source: My Daughter A week ago, I finally changed my short-term trading call: I went from neutral to cautiously bearish. When … Read more

Intel Post-Earnings: Current Options Pricing Vs. Historical Performance

Over the last two earnings reports, Intel (INTC) experienced historic 1-day gains. For January earnings that reported on Q4 results, INTC enjoyed a 10.7% gain the next day. For October earnings that reported on Q3 results, INTC enjoyed a 7.4% pop. These 1-day post-earnings gains were Intel’s 3rd and 7th highest 1-day post-earnings gains since … Read more

Above the 40 (April 6, 2018) – Barbarians Posturing At the S&P 500’s Support

AT40 = 37.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The week ended badly with a 2.2% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY). The week began with the exact same … Read more

Above the 40 (April 2, 2018) – Chipping Away At the Market Positives On the Way to Oversold

AT40 = 27.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 36.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 2-year closing and intraday lows) VIX = 23.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40, I tried to highlight the positives even as the negatives … Read more