Above the 40 (December 3, 2019) – A Quick U-Turn for Speculation in the Stock Market

AT40 = 48.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 50.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0 (up 7.0% and went as high as 18.0)Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary It was fun for the short time it lasted. The speculative turn in the stock … Read more

A More Speculative Turn in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (November 25, 2019)

The Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) broke out to a near 14-month high.

AT40 = 58.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 11.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary If “cautiously neutral” made sense, I would make that description my short-term trading call. Last week’s trading action motivated me to observe that … Read more

A Stock Market Content to Drift Higher No Matter What – Above the 40 (November 22, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) pulled back slightly last week as the stock market’s underlying bearish divergence finally proved too heavy. Yet, the pullback … Read more

Fresh Stock Market Breakout Finally Challenges the Bearish Divergence – Above the 40 (November 15, 2019)

AT40 = 60.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s slow and steady march toward Christmas continued last week. The S&P 500 (SPY) drifted slightly higher during the week until … Read more

A Growing Bearish Divergence Has Yet to Spoil Rally In Stock Indices – Above the 40 (November 8, 2019)

AT40 = 57.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market seems to be on a slow and steady march toward Christmas. The current bearish divergence and an exceptionally low volatility … Read more

A Narrowing Rally and A Sentiment Shift Define the Stock Market – Above the 40 (October 25, 2019)

AT40 = 59.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral (see below) Stock Market Commentary A Sufficient Resolution I still harbor lingering skepticism, but the S&P 500’s recovery from the last hiccup and its subsequent slow … Read more

Still No (Trade War) Resolution In the Stock Market – Above the 40 (October 18, 2019)

AT40 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 49.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.3Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary No Resolution The stock market did little to resolve my lingering skepticism over the meaningfulness of the “Phase One” or partial Trade … Read more

Part Optimism, Part Skepticism from A Partial Trade Deal – Above the 40 (October 11, 2019)

AT40 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Re-Entry Two Fridays ago, buyers took the S&P 500 (SPY) back above its 50-day moving average (DMA). It was yet … Read more

Buyers Quickly Shut the Window Of Opportunity for Stock Market Bears – Above the 40 (October 4, 2019)

AT40 = 48.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 47.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 17.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Re-Entry The bull market remains very much alive. When AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day … Read more

Stock Market Slams Into October’s Average Drawdown In Two Days Flat – Above the 40 (October 2, 2019)

The S&P 500 (SPY) confirmed its 50DMA breakdown with a 1.8% loss, but also closed well below its lower Bollinger Band.

AT40 = 39.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (intraday low at 34.5%)AT200 = 45.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 20.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Exit The selling today was so broad that even Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility … Read more