ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary A market calm emerged thanks to a pause on reciprocal tariffs and then a ceasefire in the US vs China trade war. This market calm shattered as a new tariff shock came in the form of President Trump threatening the European Union (EU) with a 50% tariff while at the same time … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Overhead resistance once prevailed over expanding market breadth, particularly over the past two trading sessions. The dominant headline was Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s warning about the difficult scenario facing the Fed due to tariffs. I interpreted his message as an intention to avoid responding as long as possible. For a market pricing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary And now car companies may soon receive tariff relief. The bewildering pace of change in tariff policy continued with an announcement that car companies may get tariff relief, and separate tariffs may be coming soon for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. This on-going chaos remains a backdrop and a major wildcard to the trading … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The tariff rumors proved true after all. The green shoots of Monday that grew alongside the rumor of a pause presaged Wednesday’s massive relief from a real blink on tariffs. Those historic gains were large enough to generate a strong week broadly across the stock market. Still, as more blinking and backing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A good friend of mine introduced me to the phrase – now we’re cooking with gas! In today’s context, this phrase refers to some startling developments in the rolling crash in the stock market. The technical damage was thorough, unrelenting, and nearly merciless. Chaos in economic policy chaos has fully transferred into … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Today was a brutal day in the stock market. The only good news I can report is that market breadth finally dropped into my official oversold territory. However, “so what?” sounds like an appropriate question to ask in the face of deepening market angst over tariffs. For example, a headline from Yahoo … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market suffered experienced a jarring selloff during the announcement of reciprocal tariffs from President Trump, a move that, despite ample telegraphing, shocked both investors and global trade partners. The Futures dropped sharply, with even oil down 2.4% and the S&P 500 plunging as much as 3% after-hours. This tariff crash … Read more
Stock Market Commentary We closed out March and Q1 with a wild day of trading. As captured in a headline from Yahoo Finance, “Wall Street closes out worst quarter since 2022,” sentiment was deeply negative. Headlines about tariffs, economic troubles, and Coinbase’s (COIN) worst quarter since the FTX collapse added to the sense of dread. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary And so a bear market ends, for the S&P 500 at least. The stock market enjoyed a strong follow-through day supported by previous oversold conditions. To represent the most recent technical developments, I created a well-defined area for the bear market called the “area of agitation”. The S&P 500’s breakout above this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary There is no support in a bear market. The market is extremely volatile, and conditions are changing daily. The market is showing clear signs of weakness, with all major trends pointing downward. The mixed messages from yesterday (Thursday) are converging more clearly on the messages of a bear market. The long-term, mid-term, … Read more