Rate Cut Cheer Not Yet Enough to Push Stock Market To Overbought – Above the 40 (July 12, 2019)

After a bullish run-up, AT40 (T2108) struggled all week to break through the overbought threshold.

AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 12.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary After the report on June jobs, financial markets got … Read more

Above the 40 (September 21, 2018) – A Suspect Breakout for the S&P 500

AT40 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market is not quite out the (short-term) woods yet. Last Wednesday I pointed out why the latest bearish divergence forced … Read more

Above the 40 (September 19, 2018) – A Bearish Divergence Intrudes On the Stock Market’s Surface Calm

AT40 = 48.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (downgrade from cautiously bullish) Commentary I am not even going to try to explain why emerging markets and trade-sensitive stocks started this week … Read more

Above the 40 (August 31, 2018) – A Pause for FOMO

AT40 = 57.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I discussed the early signs of a potential run-up driven by the “fear of missing … Read more

Above the 40 (August 10, 2018) – Facing Fresh Macro Challenges and Lacking Technical Confirmations, the S&P 500 Stalls Under All-Time Highs

AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The indicators barely changed from the last Above the 40 post, but the technical winds are likely changing yet again. A little … Read more

Above the 40 (July 13, 2018) – Buyers Quickly Zip Past Latest Bear Signal But Is Enough Gas Left?

AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary On Tuesday, July 10th, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), rose as high as … Read more

Above the 40 (May 18, 2018) – Stock Market Drift Stalls Bearish Signal

AT40 = 64.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Looks like there was a good reason to wait on flipping my short-term trading call back to (cautiously) bearish. After pointing out … Read more

Above the 40 (May 9, 2018) – More Sentiment Changes with Fresh Breakouts for the Stock Market

AT40 = 60.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The “Apple Temptation” of the stock market seems to be working. For starters, after a 3 week run with a cautiously bearish … Read more

Above the 40 (February 23, 2018) – Bulls Warm the Steamroller Right Back Up

AT40 = 36.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (awaiting confirmation of bullish breakout) Commentary Something woke the bulls and buyers back up enough to get the steamroller warmed up again. The … Read more

Above the 40 (February 15, 2016) – S&P 500 Passes A Key Post Oversold Test

AT40 = 31.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.1 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) joined the NASDAQ and PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ) by closing above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The move … Read more