ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Even the Federal Reserve must sit back and marvel as the S&P 500 (SPY) refuses to rest for long. Post-Fed handwringing sent the stock market into a period of doubt over previous assumptions of inflation fears. The previous week even ended with oversold conditions looming. However, as is the case with so … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve seemed to change the rules of the game. To-date, easy money policies and stubborn dovishness in the face of rising inflation was a formula for higher asset prices, reflation and inflation-friendly trades, and even rising fears of an over-heating economy. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell shifted the … Read more
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell served up the alley-oop and James Bullard delivered the slam dunk. While the latest statement on monetary policy had nothing to say about a hawkish turn at the Fed, Powell served up notice during the press conference. Powell noted growth and inflation prospects that exceeded prior expectations, which in turn … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The drag I described in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s pronouncements on monetary policy eroded the stock market a lot more than I thought. Market breadth printed a major fakeout with my favorite indicator plunging in the wake of deep selling in inflation-related trades from commodities to industrials to financials. The … Read more
The Follow-Through Intro The biggest follow-through trades from “Key Stock Sectors Missed A Breakout In Market Breadth – Above the 40” (June 11, 2021) erupted in the housing-related plays. Big cap tech looks more ready than ever to reestablish its leadership position over the market. The stock market had an initial negative reaction to the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market struggled for months against the downtrend line on market breadth. The struggle ended last week. My favorite technical indicator of breadth AT40 (T2108) broke out and closed the week at 61.9%. Now I start a countdown toward a test of the overbought threshold. However, several sectors dampened the week’s … Read more
In just a few days, I transitioned from being completely unaware of Celsius Holdings (CELH) to lamenting my chance encounter with the fitness beverage company. Celsius Holdings caught my interest last week after breaking out to an all-time high. After CELH pulled back 15.1% off an all-time high, I made a fresh case for buying … Read more
The Follow Through Intro In this premiere edition of “The Follow Through”, I review the latest trading developments in stocks and indices covered in my last Above the 40 blog post: “No Deal for a Confirmation of the Market Breadth Breakout.” This format will focus on video as a quick way of sending out new … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The Spring selling season looked like it started strong for new home sales. The data for April reveal a story evolving differently. Absolute inventories rose for both existing and new homes and yet sales declined. Housing starts also suffered a setback. Median prices of homes soared, especially for new homes, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week featured yet another episode of momentary panic proceeded by a virtual “all clear” signal. In the middle of the week, the S&P 500 (SPY) broke down just as the stock market hit extremes. Subsequently, buyers stepped into the breach. As a result, the very next day, the stock market rebounded … Read more