Forex Critical: Dollar Danger

It was one of those trades that works until it doesn’t. Ever since the U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) back in April, 2018, the index provided a lot of bullish swing trade opportunities. In the early stages of the rally, DXY pivoted around its 20DMA and then its … Read more

Forex Critical: The “Safety Trade” Drives the Swiss Franc Near A 2-Year Milestone

While the volatility index (VIX) is only reluctantly responding to the latest turmoil in financial markets, other safety trades are moving in full steam. The “safety trade” I left out of my last post covering the stock market was the Swiss franc (FXF). At the time of writing the Swiss franc fell to a near … Read more

A Path Higher for the U.S. Dollar: A Shrinking Trade Deficit

It is increasingly clear that President Trump and his administration will relentlessly pursue a goal of balanced trade with the rest of the world. Trump sees negative trade balances as an absolute bad, and his fiery political rhetoric highlights that positioning. If my interpretation is correct, then I want to stay net long the U.S. … Read more

Betting the Swiss Franc’s Italian-Inspired Comeback Is Temporary

In mid-April I wrote expecting EUR/CHF to finally return to the old 1.20 currency floor set by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) years ago. Two days later, EUR/CHF did indeed hit 1.20….for all of a few hot minutes. For almost the past three weeks, EUR/CHF has plunged all over again as political turmoil in Italy … Read more

Forex Critical – Key Trends Continuing for the Aussie, Loonie, and Yen

The latest CFTC data on the Commitments of Traders (CoT) showed some key trends continuing: new heights of bullishness on the Australian dollar (FXA) and the Canadian dollar (FXC), and on-going depths of bearishness for the Japanese yen (FXY). Speculators increased net longs on the Australian dollar for the 8th week in a row. Speculators … Read more

The Anatomy of a Bottom for the British Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 26, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The British pound (FXB) suffered a historic plunge in the wake of Brexit’s victory, the beginning of the UK’s divorce from the European Union (EU). While headlines have been full of … Read more

Forex Critical: Trader Confidence Continues to Grow

In the previous week, forex traders extended existing positioning trends. This consistency reveals an on-going confidence in the given trends. Where these changes are consistent with currency moves, traders seem indeed justified in the confidence. However, there are some cases where these positions are starting to run counter to potential shifts in currencies. I expect … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Beat A Major Retreat from Bearishness on the British Pound

A bottom for the British pound just got more likely. The latest data from the CFTC shows that net speculators beat a major retreat from net short positions against the British pound: Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders The chart shows that speculators have not held such small net short positions since the surge began … Read more

The British Pound Suddenly Reverses Course

Perhaps as a great irony, the British pound (FXB) is suddenly losing favor even as the euro appears to stabilize in the wake of the latest drama in Greece. Since touching the 0.70 level last week, the euro has made steady gains against the British pound as seen here in EUR/GBP. Now, the British pound … Read more