ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Reuters reported on August 4, 2015 that Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart insisted to the Wall Street Journal that he firmly supports a rate hike in September. Only a “‘significant deterioration’ in the U.S. economy” would deter Locker. The 30-Day Fed Funds futures market was unimpressed – Locker might as well been screaming into … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) This month’s acceleration in the now 4-year sell-off in commodities seems to indicate that markets are getting serious about bracing for a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve. I have mainly … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 25, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) As every other major central bank has done, the Federal Reserve has taken a crack at estimating the economic impact of the collapse in oil prices. In its semi-annual report to … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On May 27th, the Federal Reserve Board published the second annual results of its Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). {snip} Based on the Fed’s survey results, I concluded that … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 31, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This quote was buried in footnote #14 of Janet Yellen’s speech at a research conference called “The New Normal Monetary Policy” sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Central bankers continue to warn financial markets to properly price in risk. On March 13th, Chris Salmon, the Executive Director of Markets at the Bank of England (BoE) continued the … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 12, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Ever since the Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy on March 19th, the Canadian dollar (FXC) has staged a strong recovery, increasing about 3.4% over that time. Canada’s weak employment report … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “There is no mechanical formula.” This is the response Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave to a reporter who tried to press her on the rules and timing for the first … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 12, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last Thursday (December 12, 2013), U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 368,000. This number was above “expectations” and above the on-going declining trend in the 4-week moving average. {snip} Source: … Read more