ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The U.S. Federal Reserve released its latest decision on monetary policy and left interest rates unchanged. There was of course no surprise there. However, the very mention of a future rate hike was treated like new news: Fed holds rates near zero, but signals possible hike "at its next meeting" https://t.co/vF4pOxlo9p — WSJ Breaking News … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 28, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) While the S&P 500 (SPY) continues to languish in the aftermath of the flash crash and accompanying sell-off, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) is still up 5.7% for the year … Read more
“…I expect that inflation will return to 2 percent over the next few years as the temporary factors that are currently weighing on inflation wane, provided that economic growth continues to be strong enough to complete the return to maximum employment and long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored. Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 18, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) If you have followed the CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, today’s decision by the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged did not surprise you. You may have even … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 20, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. Federal Reserve released its minutes from its July 28 to 29, 2015 meeting. It was pretty much the same back and forth on monetary policy and the U.S. and … Read more
The U.S. dollar index (USDX) remains stuck in its downtrend by a thread. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The long-awaited catalyst was the U.S. jobs report for July, 2015. In my opinion, the report shed no new light on the timing for a Fed rate hike. It was pretty much more of the same. The stalemate on the … Read more
Reuters reported on August 4, 2015 that Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart insisted to the Wall Street Journal that he firmly supports a rate hike in September. Only a “‘significant deterioration’ in the U.S. economy” would deter Locker. The 30-Day Fed Funds futures market was unimpressed – Locker might as well been screaming into … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) This month’s acceleration in the now 4-year sell-off in commodities seems to indicate that markets are getting serious about bracing for a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve. I have mainly … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 25, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) As every other major central bank has done, the Federal Reserve has taken a crack at estimating the economic impact of the collapse in oil prices. In its semi-annual report to … Read more