ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: Unlike the prior week, last week was all about the fundamentals, and the fundamentals made a huge difference. After failing to break through picture-perfect resistance levels, especially the 20-day moving averages (DMAs) (the dotted lines in the charts below), the indices were left vulnerable to selling pressure. The pressure started with Federal … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: This stock market is one bullish bear market. A bear market perhaps cannot get more bullish than the current market. Since the October lows, the various indices have shown a general upside bias. As much time that I have spent the last several weeks looking for excuses to get bearish, the market … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week ended the overbought period with a relatively strong report on initial claims for unemployment. The stock market – still freshly stung with the memory of the previous week‘s exceptionally strong jobs report – sold off sharply in response to the good economic news. A stubbornly resilient labor market continues to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market had quite a bullish week especially considering another Federal Reserve meeting is right around the corner. The week started with a push into overbought conditions and buyers proceeded to slowly steepen overbought conditions the rest of the week. I am quite surprised by this bullish anticipation ahead of the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Once again, Apple Inc (AAPL) became a poster child of market sentiment. When AAPL pulled away from resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below), the move looked like a tease with bear market conditions still in force. Two weeks later, AAPL emerged vindicated as a 3.3% post-earnings gain … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A month ago, housing-related stocks managed to stabilize despite deteriorating data. Reality caught up in June with a fresh round of selling in the stocks of home builders. A surprising jump in new home sales provide some relief for an otherwise on-going din of negative housing news. The National Association … Read more
TLDR: Coinbase Global, Inc (COIN) did not directly answer the question about a new disclosure: can a bankruptcy filing by Coinbase result in the loss of a customer’s assets? The Rolling Disaster I am one unhappy Coinbase (COIN) shareholder. After alternating between buying and shorting COIN at much higher levels, I finally settled on buying … Read more
The reaction to the Q1 2022 earnings report from KB Home (KBH) symbolizes the skepticism that enshrouds housing-related stocks when the economic cycle turns against them. KBH management was almost as bullish as can be during the earnings conference call. Yet, sellers took KBH down the next day by 4.6%. Last week, KBH tested its … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I gave the summary for the week in my last “Market Breadth” post. I will just add here that the stock charts are full of images of a stock market running low on fuel. I tell just a small part of the narrative below. Stock Chart Reviews – Below the 50-day moving … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Trading with on-going headline risk is difficult for bulls and bears. I find it useful to pick a narrative, pick an anchor, and stay as disciplined as possible. My foundation remains with the principles of trading contrary to extremes. Last week, the market tested the extremes of oversold trading conditions and survived … Read more