ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 18.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #3) AT200 = 43.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.6 (range from 24.4 to 29.7) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary My favorite technical indicator made a valiant effort, but it could not quite break … Read more
AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.3 (28.5% increase!) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary “We cannot tolerate pervasive and persistent misconduct at any bank and the consumers harmed by Wells Fargo expect that robust … Read more
Iron ore may have reached a new inflection point with a price rally coming to a halt in January and some related stocks consolidating near multi-year highs. When I last made an iron ore trade in September, 2017, I was responding to a surprise projection from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that suggested a … Read more
AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended a 1-day overbought period AT200 = 62.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.7 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary It figures that just one day after the stock market finally crossed into overbought territory, it … Read more
AT40 = 64.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.8 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The New Year started with fireworks with the S&P 500 (SPY) gapping up to a 0.8% gain and new all-time high. … Read more
The Canadian dollar (FXC) is at an interesting juncture. Strong economic data has strengthened the currency but the Bank of Canada (BoC) has applied brakes on currency’s rally. The Canadian dollar weakened in the wake of policy statements in October and December. The last word of 2017 went to the economic data as hot inflation … Read more
Maybe it is fear of the Fed, maybe it is the distraction of cryptocurrencies reaching for infinity. Whatever the issue, speculators in precious metals are in rapid retreat as net long contracts dropped to levels not seen in 4 to 5 months. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders This decline represents the climax of October’s … Read more
A month ago, I wrote about the near seasonal pattern of speculators accumulating net long contracts in gold and silver from July troughs to October peaks. THIS year, the speculators started up on schedule but aborted the mission as net longs peaked well ahead of October. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders So seasonal patterns … Read more
AT40 = 71.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – overbought day #2 AT200 = 58.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.5 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary It looks like an overbought rally is truly underway. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks closing above their … Read more
The market must be expecting an imminent rebound in the price of iron ore. Almost two weeks ago, I proposed a pairs trade going short Rio Tinto (RIO) versus long BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) as a way to play the top in the price of iron ore predicted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). … Read more