ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The odds of getting four total rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year are about as low as ever now. Even the odds for just 3 total rate hikes for 2018 are ominously converging upon 50/50. Source: CME FedWatch The chart above shows a 14.8% chance that rates will get to at least the … Read more
In mid-April I wrote expecting EUR/CHF to finally return to the old 1.20 currency floor set by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) years ago. Two days later, EUR/CHF did indeed hit 1.20….for all of a few hot minutes. For almost the past three weeks, EUR/CHF has plunged all over again as political turmoil in Italy … Read more
A little over two weeks ago, I was just starting to concede that the likelihood of four Fed rate hikes in 2018 was trending in favor of the hawks. Last week, the rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell back sharply and ended the week below the magic tripwire of 3.0% (starting Thursday). In parallel, … Read more
AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The churn continues on the S&P 500 (SPY) while AT40 (T2108) loiters around just under its overbought threshold of 70%. The lethargic … Read more
When Lennar (LEN) reported earnings on April 4th the market’s reaction looked just like the refresher the market needed to get housing stocks going again. LEN soared 10.0% on the day. The deal looked sealed when LEN appeared to confirm the surge with another up day. LEN has suffered severe selling pressure ever since. Source: … Read more