Acuity Brands: The Business Uncertainties from Tariff and Wage Inflation

I last mentioned Acuity Brands (AYI), a lighting and building management solutions company with $3.7B in net sales in 2018, three months ago. At that time, I described a good risk/reward setup to go long the stock post-earnings. AYI shot nearly straight up from there. The stock broke through resistance at its 200-day moving average … Read more

The U.S. Dollar Idles While Rate Hike Odds and Trade Pressures Creep Higher

I am riding the long U.S. dollar index (DXY) trade based on two simple drivers: 1) a U.S. Federal Reserve pacing for four rate hikes in 2018, and 2) an expanding trade war, especially against China, which on balance will create more demand for U.S. dollars especially relative to those currencies who stand to lose … Read more

Housing Market Review (June, 2018) – A Struggling Flicker As New and Existing Home Markets Diverge

I saw a flicker of hope for home builders in the last Housing Market Review. Traders decided to snuff that flicker out very quickly afterward. Breakouts transformed into new tops and now the struggling flicker comes from home builder stocks holding support. The short-term path ahead looks like chop at best, especially with the latest … Read more

A Path Higher for the U.S. Dollar: A Shrinking Trade Deficit

It is increasingly clear that President Trump and his administration will relentlessly pursue a goal of balanced trade with the rest of the world. Trump sees negative trade balances as an absolute bad, and his fiery political rhetoric highlights that positioning. If my interpretation is correct, then I want to stay net long the U.S. … Read more

Robert Reich Over-Reaches By Blaming Investing and Shopping for Income Inequality

Soon after I finally posted my review and critique of Robert Reich’s book on income inequality titled “Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future,” Reich published commentary which extended his analysis of income inequality to blame investors and shoppers for the problem. The concise argument appeared in an editorial in the Financial Times called “We … Read more