ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The case for a sustainable low—but not necessarily a bottom—continues to develop. Today’s catalyst came from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who breathed more life into market breadth. Market breadth continued its steady expansion. Over the past three of four trading days, there has been clear expansion in breadth, now reaching a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market saw a cool and strong follow-through day, reinforcing the potential for a sustainable low (NOT a bottom). Based on changes in market breadth, I discussed the potential for a sustainable low in “FINALLY, Some Convincing Bear Market Relief – The Market Breadth“. A flip in the short-term trends for … Read more
Stock Market Commentary After weeks of persistent selling, the stock market finally delivered bear market relief, with all major indices posting solid gains to end the week. Market breadth notably improved, signaling a shift in buying power that could indicate the start of a sustainable low. Note well that a sustainable low is NOT the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary There is no support in a bear market. The market is extremely volatile, and conditions are changing daily. The market is showing clear signs of weakness, with all major trends pointing downward. The mixed messages from yesterday (Thursday) are converging more clearly on the messages of a bear market. The long-term, mid-term, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I used key indicators in late February to issue a red flag warning on the stock market. I used additional indicators to serve as caution even as I flipped to a bullish posture on the stock market last week. Now, a fresh indicator of caution has emerged in the form of an … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Reality bites. And right now those bites are clamping down on rotten eggs in the form of a swift repricing of risk. Once high priced eggs are now eggs few shoppers want. Last week’s theme of bring the pain continued in force at this week’s open: more economic uncertainty, more economic fears, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The current administration’s policy of long-term growth through short-term pain in the form of austerity came into clear focus last week. I earlier introduced this concept in “Growth Scare or Overreaction – An Oversold Market or Something Worse?“. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out the strategy in detailed economic … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Stock market angst reached a kind of crescendo last week. Poor economic data and bad news – including a plunge in consumer confidence, a 180 degree reversal in the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP growth projection from +2.3% to -1.5%, risk-off trading in cryptocurrencies (apparently due to a massive hack of ByBit), and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market looked ready to follow through on leaving its troubles behind. The S&P 500 even made a new all-time high. Everything seemed to fall apart on Friday. The final release of consumer expectations as measured by the University Michigan confirmed earlier preliminary numbers: inflation expectations soared and consumer sentiment tanked. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Two weeks ago I wrote how a “A DeepSeek Dive and A Tariff Toll” created the next shift in the market’s technical outlook. I stepped back from a bullish position on the market as a result. Now, a familiar theme has unfolded with the stock market looking ready to leave its latest … Read more