ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary I used key indicators in late February to issue a red flag warning on the stock market. I used additional indicators to serve as caution even as I flipped to a bullish posture on the stock market last week. Now, a fresh indicator of caution has emerged in the form of an … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Reality bites. And right now those bites are clamping down on rotten eggs in the form of a swift repricing of risk. Once high priced eggs are now eggs few shoppers want. Last week’s theme of bring the pain continued in force at this week’s open: more economic uncertainty, more economic fears, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The current administration’s policy of long-term growth through short-term pain in the form of austerity came into clear focus last week. I earlier introduced this concept in “Growth Scare or Overreaction – An Oversold Market or Something Worse?“. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out the strategy in detailed economic … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Stock market angst reached a kind of crescendo last week. Poor economic data and bad news – including a plunge in consumer confidence, a 180 degree reversal in the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP growth projection from +2.3% to -1.5%, risk-off trading in cryptocurrencies (apparently due to a massive hack of ByBit), and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market looked ready to follow through on leaving its troubles behind. The S&P 500 even made a new all-time high. Everything seemed to fall apart on Friday. The final release of consumer expectations as measured by the University Michigan confirmed earlier preliminary numbers: inflation expectations soared and consumer sentiment tanked. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Two weeks ago I wrote how a “A DeepSeek Dive and A Tariff Toll” created the next shift in the market’s technical outlook. I stepped back from a bullish position on the market as a result. Now, a familiar theme has unfolded with the stock market looking ready to leave its latest … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A DeepSeek dive stole the headlines from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, tariff headlines refused to go away. Assuming you have already gotten your fill of DeepSeek headlines, I will just summarize the drama by saying a Chinese start-up has apparently completely up-ended the economics of the AI universe. DeepSeek’s … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, I concluded that the stock market had reached “oversold enough” trading conditions. Last week confirmed an oversold low as market breadth rapidly broadened and supported an all-time high redux for the S&P 500. Yet, this revival comes with important caveats. Uncertainty looms over the Federal Reserve’s next moves even … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The week opened with market breadth dropping to within five percentage points of the oversold threshold. This was the closest encounter with oversold since late October, 2023. The stock market never looked back from there. A favorable mid-week inflation report helped propel the stock market with the assistance of declining long-term bond … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Writing about financial markets always feels surreal when tragedy and disaster dominate the news headlines. My cognitive dissonance gets particularly poignant when the stock market does not reflect the scale and scope of events. As massive fires rage in Los Angeles causing to-date $135B to $150B in economic losses and loss of … Read more