ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The stock market presented mixed messages amidst ongoing volatility. While a “softer than expected” CPI report presumably triggered an initial fragile rebound, I see persistent underlying weakness. Apple Inc. (AAPL) represents this fragility with a continued bearish breakdown casting a shadow over the broader market. Apple Inc. (AAPL) declined 1.8% and confirmed … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The current administration’s policy of long-term growth through short-term pain in the form of austerity came into clear focus last week. I earlier introduced this concept in “Growth Scare or Overreaction – An Oversold Market or Something Worse?“. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out the strategy in detailed economic … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, I concluded that the stock market had reached “oversold enough” trading conditions. Last week confirmed an oversold low as market breadth rapidly broadened and supported an all-time high redux for the S&P 500. Yet, this revival comes with important caveats. Uncertainty looms over the Federal Reserve’s next moves even … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Bearish engulfing patterns flag potential tops at the end of uptrends. They represent the potential exhaustion of buying power as price first opens above the previous day’s high and then closes below the previous day’s close. Thus, the latest round of bearish engulfing patterns in major indices and major stocks should be … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 3.0% since summer trading began the day after the Memorial Day weekend. If not for the poor market breadth, the rally would look like a repeat of last year’s summer of loving stocks (sorry sell in May and go away folks). Semiconductor stocks, particularly NVIDIA Corporation … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week was an intense week of trading. The ever-escalating conflict in the Middle East disturbed markets. However, the initial negative reaction in futures market was mostly erased by the time of the market open on Thursday. The indices even managed to gain ground before getting faded. Thus, the market still fundamentally … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week was a time to avoid staring too hard at the day-to-day pricing action. The major indices were pretty much locked into a stalemate. Two breakouts were followed by two breakdowns. From a wider perspective, a stalemate has effectively been in place since mid-August. Despite my expectations, last month’s Jackson hole … Read more
Stock Market Commentary On Thursday, good economic news scared Wall Street yet again. Initial jobless claims came in well below “expectations” and set off a cascade of reactions. Interest rates shot up and the stock market dropped down. The stubborn strength of the labor market allows the Federal Reserve to stay hawkish and keep its … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: After much resistance to Fed hawkishness, the U.S. stock market gave way to fresh bearishness. The major indices dropped into new depths of the bear den. The stocks below are snapshots of the latest deterioration in the price action and decline in the technical health underlying the stock market. The ARK funds … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I earlier wrote about a forlorn stock market writing a love note to the Federal Reserve. This love note comes in the form of a basket of sell-offs. The selling is so broad and so deep that traders could throw a dart and find descriptive stock charts. The examples below are some … Read more