ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
When I decided to start writing a monthly summary of the status of the housing market, I had assumed that housing was going to remain in or settle into a general holding pattern. I assumed little was going to happen to the upside or the downside for a while. Under those conditions, it did not … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 10, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The bursting of the housing bubble destroyed the supply chain at several critical junctures. For example, employment in the industry collapsed. While the overall unemployment rate in the industry has returned … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 9, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) It is still very early in the new year, but I cannot help notice the relative strength exhibited by iShares Trust – iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and several major … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last month, I wrote about the strong sales activity in million dollar plus homes in Canada that are occurring despite poor jobs growth in the country. It was an interesting study … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The above quote pretty much sums up the attitude of homebuilders (ITB) going into 2014. It sounds like a classic sales pitch from a real estate agent, but the evidence … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 20, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Homebuilders KB Home (KBH) and Lennar Corp. (LEN) both reported earnings on September 24th. I believe these were the first earnings reports for homebuilders after the Federal Reserve backed down from … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 5, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In late November, 2012, I made a list of my homebuilder picks for 2013. I combined valuation, price changes, and short interest to build the list. Almost 6 months later, it … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 21, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On January 17th, NPR’s All Things Considered ran a story called “Homebuilding Is Booming, But Skilled Workers Are Scarce.” It was yet another story adding to the evidence that the tightness … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} It is hard to be bearish on the U.S. economy when housing is working. Homebuilders are also the ultimate play on the U.S. economy given the minimal (direct) linkage to … Read more