ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in February, 2018 for January, 2018. At the time, I connected the dots on the bearish implications of converging technicals and fundamentals. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) broke down below its 200-day moving average (DMA) in a very bearish move. Yet, the very next day, … Read more
For the second time in a row, KB Home (KBH) is struggling to benefit from a strong earnings report. In January, investors rushed into the stock post-earnings only to create a massive blow-off top. In March, sellers started fading the stock on the same day of the initial post-earnings pop. Last week, KBH broke down … Read more
AT40 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 2.0% for the week. Yet the week felt like a loser given the way it ended. The … Read more
The ink just dried on my last Housing Market Review. In that piece I lamented the on-going lagging performance of home builders and stagnating housing housing data, and thus concluded that it was time to call an end to the seasonal trade on home builders. Just two days later, home builders surged upward in sympathy … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in February, 2018 for January, 2018. At the time, I connected the dots on the bearish implications of converging technicals and fundamentals. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) actually managed to hold onto support at its 200-day moving average…until today. So not only is the seasonal … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in January, 2018 for December, 2017. At the time, I described the ominous breakdown of the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), but I was not yet ready to connect the dots on the bearish implications. I am now. ITB has continued its breakdown by first severely … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in December, 2017 for November, 2017. At the time, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) was still recovering from a small dip caused by an earnings report from Toll Brothers (TOL) that disappointed the market. Housing data were strong and pointed to on-going bullishness. January launched … Read more
KB Home (KBH) reported earnings last week on January 10, 2018. The reaction the next day was outright startling. The stock gapped up and did not stop rallying until it finished with a 12.3% gain and a new 10 1/2 year high. Source: FreeStockCharts.com I was so taken aback that I checked on the historical … Read more
AT40 = 69.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 63.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.9 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Last week, I complained about the stock market’s “rubber band” getting stretched. I claimed that AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in October, 2017 for September, 2017. At the time, I lamented having too small an exposure to home builders while the entire sector rallied nearly non-stop. I was counting on seasonal patterns to deliver at least one buyable dip ahead of the seasonally strong period starting in … Read more