Above the 40 (March 8, 2017) – A Quiet Pre-Fed Breakdown for the Stock Market

AT40 = 43.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Times like these really put AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to … Read more

Silver Speculators Slam Into Fed’s Plan for A March Rate Hike

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) made a major peak last summer when it hit a 2-year high. The rally year-to-date seemed to come to an abrupt end when SLV plunged through support at its 200-day moving average (DMA) and its 20DMA uptrend. Source: FreeStockCharts.com However, don’t tell speculators any sad tales about silver. Speculators increased … Read more

Above the 40 (March 3, 2017) – The S&P 500 Marches Confidently Toward the Next Rate Hike

AT40 = 57.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 67.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary So March it is then! In reaction to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at The Executives’ Club of … Read more

Above the 40 (March 1, 2017) – The S&P 500 Coil Springs Into March Rate Hike Expectations

AT40 Status: 64.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 70.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 12.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Two days ago, I titled my Above the 40 update “The S&P 500 Coiled In Anticipation.” I described the building … Read more

A Fresh Gold Versus Bonds Pairs Trade With the Dollar Playing Wildcard

It is hard to believe that just six weeks ago I proposed a pairs trade of gold versus bonds with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) toying with resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) doing the same. Now, GLD has already hit the next line of resistance … Read more

Above the 40 (February 8, 2017) – The S&P 500 Slumbers Between Bullish Fund Flows and Bearish Divergence

AT40 Status: 53.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 66.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 11.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary As is so typical of this go-stop-stop stock market, this week started without immediate follow-through to a fresh all-time high … Read more

T2108 Update (January 19, 2017) – Inauguration Eve Draws More Bearish Divergence

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 13, 2017) – The NASDAQ Shows Resolve While the S&P 500 Bearishly Grinds Away

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Important Lessons from the Trump-Inspired Breakdown For Gold

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 27, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has increased 6.3% since December 15, 2015. The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked its interest rate the next day and made its second hike for this cycle … Read more

T2108 Update (December 15, 2016) – The S&P 500 Struggles to Return to Pre-Fed Momentum

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more