What Happened in the Housing Market – Reckoning

What Happened to the Housing Market

Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in October, 2024? A reckoning that I anticipated finally came in the form of sharply lower prices for the shares of home builders. After resisting rising mortgage rates for a month, the stock market lost its appetite. Earnings have brought a dose of reality … Read more

What Happened in the Housing Market – Sales Stabilize, Stocks Sharply Rebound

What Happened to the Housing Market

Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in August, 2024? Financial markets quickly threw out a major downgrade from Citigroup for the housing sector. Hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve continued to impact both the data and stock prices. While the on-going decline in mortgage rates has failed to … Read more

What Happened to the Housing Market – Stocks Topping and Sales Headwinds

A topping pattern for the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) includes the reversal of gains for the year and a breakdown below support at the 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line).

Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in April, 2024? After four months of growing more positive, home builders proceeded into the spring selling season thanks to drag from the South. In my previous Housing Market Review, I pointed out a positive start to the spring selling season. April painted a … Read more

What Happened to the Housing Market – Breakouts and Bottoms | Feb, 2024

what happened to the housing market - construction site

Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in February, 2024? Breakouts and bottoms happened. In my previous Housing Market Review, I posited the possibility of a top in the seasonal trade on home builders. In the subsequent month, the stocks of home builders took on new life as investors forgot about … Read more

Signs of Stabilization Ahead of the Spring Selling Season – Housing Market Review

stabilization (Credit: Washington State Office of Transportation on Flickr)

Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I laid out the case for bracing for what 2023 would bring even as “faint signs of a bottoming for sentiment have started to appear.” The latest housing data and industry expectations suggest that the market is well-braced for 2023. The signs of bottoming … Read more

Bracing for 2023 – Housing Market Review

bracing for 2023 (Credit: Bracing for the storm by mick62 on Flickr)

Housing Market Intro and Summary A continued respite from rising rates gave some breathing room for new home sales to stabilize in November while existing home sales continued to plunge with a dearth of inventory helping to suck air out of the room. Housing starts continued to plunge in parallel with home builder sentiment. However, … Read more

A Respite from Rising Rates – Housing Market Review

respite (Credit: Short respite for the Ruby Mountain Crew while cutting fire line in Division W by USFS Rocky Mtns from Flickr)

Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described how a housing recession was reflected in the worsening housing data, including the latest report on U.S. GDP. While new home sales made another surprise bounce in October, the rest of the housing data continued to worsen in the month. However, a … Read more

D.R. Horton Leads the Home Builder ETF Down to An Important Test

The seasonal trade in home builders continues to unfold more like a typical year. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) peaked in May on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY). Since that peak, ITB is down 12.2% while the S&P 500 is UP 3.9%. This gap is so wide that … Read more

A Slowing Housing Boom, Not A Crash – Housing Market Review (July, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary “When will the housing market crash?” I hear this question from people astounded by the housing market’s strong performance during the pandemic. The housing market is not heading into a crash anytime soon. Demand remains strong, inventories are scarce, mortgage rates are rock bottom, home buyers are in strong financial … Read more

Housing Activity Continues to Normalize Back to Annual Sales Trends – Housing Market Review (January, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary “…the level of housing activity is at its highest level since before the global financial crisis in some measure. So we’ve had a very strong rebound in housing. Some of the tightness in housing markets — which has led to the significant price increases this year — we think is … Read more