OPEC’s Latest Stumbles Create the Next Opportunity for an Oil-Driven Pairs Trade

In a previous post on the stock market, I noted how commodity-related plays were apparently benefiting from a sagging U.S. dollar index (DXY0). I failed to note that oil was (and is) a glaring exception. Oil futures fell around 9% for the week. This plunge was enough to completely reverse last month’s rally for United … Read more

T2108 Update (September 28, 2016) – Oil Price Manipulation Excites the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Shift In the UGA vs USO Pairs Trade Ahead of Algiers OPEC Gathering

OPEC, the oil cartel known as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, will hold an informal meeting in Algiers, Algeria this coming week (September 28, 2016). On Friday, September 23, 2016 headlines declared that Saudi Arabia and Iran were unable to reach agreement on production caps after two days of preparatory talks in Vienna, … Read more

T2108 Update (August 12, 2016) – A Boring Week of All-Time Highs Belies the Revenge of Retail

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Forgo the United States Oil ETF In Favor Of the United States Gasoline ETF?

I recently read an article that attempted to dive into the nuances of trading the United States Oil ETF (USO) versus the United States Gasoline ETF (UGA). I suddenly realized that through all the nuanced comparisons the forest was being lost for the trees. Since at least 2009, UGA has greatly outperformed USO. In fact, … Read more

The Federal Reserve C(Sh)ould Become a Target of the Oil and Gas Price Fraud Working Group

(The following news release is satire and reflects my own cynical interpretation of recent news events. But as they say, there is always some truth in humor.) On Thursday, Attorney General Eric Holder introduced the country to the Oil and Gas Price Fraud Working Group to “…focus specifically on fraud in the energy markets” by … Read more