ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s V-shaped recovery finished reversing most of the losses from the August calamity. Small caps are once again the laggards. During this recovery the market swung from recessions fears to recession relief. The prospects for interest rate cuts no longer seemed to matter on either side of the V-shape. The … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week started with a calamity and ended with a restless calm. Critical trendlines held as support as buyers and bulls ground their way to a near full reversal of Monday’s loss. Ironically, the market even found relief in a “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims report. Claims fell 17,000 from the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Be ready so that you don’t have to get ready. A perfect storm of fears converged upon the market at today’s open. Recession fears, deleveraging from the end of the carry trade, and perhaps even fresh geopolitical fears from the Middle East, spun the market even further off the road. Retail brokerage … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Welcome to the start of the stock market’s three most dangerous months of the year. A weak jobs report for July helped to send market sentiment into a sharp reversal. The bad economic news suddenly turned the prospect of rate cuts into something to fear. These rate cut fears spun the market … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Bears still look ready to bow out, but they still have their paws firmly planted on high-tech stocks, especially semiconductors. The market rotations out of tech are nudging enough stocks higher, especially small caps, to rechallenge the threshold defining overbought conditions for market breadth. The stark divergence in stocks greatly reduces the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary After just acknowledging politics could deliver on-going surprises for traders and investors, both up and down, I certainly did not expect the first day of trading after that post to confirm my assessment. On Sunday, President Biden bowed out the 2024 Presidential campaign and endorsed VP Kamala Harris. The stock market greeted … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week ended with an historic tech outage that took down operations around the globe. This event was a poetic punctuation to a week that featured a sharp and toppy end to overbought conditions. The stock market’s tech outage features blow-off tops, double-tops, and some key breakdowns in individual stocks. Still, while … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The latest overbought period lasted two days, a typical duration. However, the start of the period was atypical given the fuel from historic heroics from small cap stocks. The end of the overbought period was remarkable by delivering some of the clearest topping signals of the year. Key indices that soared into … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The NASDAQ is still toppy, but no matter. Small cap stocks are playing the role of super hero. They made a major statement helping to drive market breadth into overbought conditions. These tiny tots turned super hero in historic fashion. Talk about igniting overbought conditions in style! Forget all that talk about … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week further emphasized the continuation of notable divergence from Q2 to Q3. This time, soft inflation data caused a surge in rate cut anticipation that in turn drove a significant rotation away from big cap growth and tech stocks and toward small caps and a whole host of other rate sensitive … Read more