ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary There are not enough superlatives in the dictionary to describe what happened today. We have borne witness to a multi-day, multi-week saga of economic warfare, tariff chaos, a rolling stock market crash – and now, an historic oversold bounce. President Trump has gone from tariffs, to tariff flexibility, to tariff reciprocity to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 delivered only a brief respite from the bear market when it broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) to start the week. Two days later, the bear market reasserted itself. Another two days later, the sellers punched an exclamation mark on the bear market as a “hot” inflation … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Writing about financial markets always feels surreal when tragedy and disaster dominate the news headlines. My cognitive dissonance gets particularly poignant when the stock market does not reflect the scale and scope of events. As massive fires rage in Los Angeles causing to-date $135B to $150B in economic losses and loss of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The dust is settling ever so slightly on the stock market’s post-Fed plunge. The stock market shifted from euphoria to oversold on a day that woke up everyone to a potentially new market reality. I say “potentially” because all year the market has been hit with bearish catalysts and quickly bounced back … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week started with a calamity and ended with a restless calm. Critical trendlines held as support as buyers and bulls ground their way to a near full reversal of Monday’s loss. Ironically, the market even found relief in a “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims report. Claims fell 17,000 from the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary There is a deepening irony in my on-going bearishness on the stock market. The sector most visibly responsible for the anti-bearish animal spirits leaning against poor market breadth is the same sector I remain unapologetically bullish about: Artificial Intelligence (AI). The ironic contrast was in full display last week as the bullish … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Right after the stock market tempted me to flip from bearish to neutral, January’s CPI (consumer price index) turned brought the bears rushing back to the scene. Inflation’s fizzle turned to sizzle, and the technical picture of the stock market almost flipped on its head. The charts say it all – the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week repeated a familiar story. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed up for the week. Since the October lows, each index has only suffered one down week. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF was part of the party until the calendar flipped to 2024. The ETF of small caps lost altitude … Read more
Stock Market Commentary As new year weakness continues in the stock market, a serious tension has emerged in the message of the market between profit-taking versus a sustained top. An extended overbought period raises the stakes for the resolution of this tension. As long as the stock market remains overbought, I will assume the current … Read more
Stock Market Commentary After the stock market rally suffered strike one and strike two, Wednesday’s sudden pullback had all the signatures of a third strike to start the end of the extended overbought rally. Sellers surged in the final 90 minutes of trading that day. However, they failed to sustain the stampede for the exits. … Read more