Above the 40DMA (October 15, 2018) – Oversold Conditions Test Critical Stock Market 200DMAs

AT40 = 13.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – a 4th oversold day (below 20%) AT200 = 33.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.3 (no change) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary All eyes are now trained on the stock market’s critical long-term moving averages … Read more

The Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen Are Still Useful S&P 500 Signals

I often use the Australian dollar (FXA) versus the Japanese yen (JPY) as a proxy for the market’s risk tolerance. If AUD/JPY is rising, the market is bullish. If AUD/JPY is falling, the market is bearish. The correlation is not as consistent as I would like, so I use it with caution, caveats, and context. … Read more

Above the 40 (October 12, 2018) – Confidence and A Conditional Reprieve Amid Oversold Lows

AT40 = 11.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit an intraday low of 9.4%, oversold day #3) AT200 = 32.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (intraday low of 30.0%) VIX = 21.3 (a decrease of 14.7%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of … Read more

Above the 40 (October 10, 2018) – The Stock Market Cascades Down to Oversold Territory

AT40 = 16.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (a drop of 14.2 percentage points to an 8-month low and the first day of an oversold period) AT200 = 38.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a drop of 7.6 percentage points to a 6-month low) VIX = … Read more

Retail Rally Comes to A Screeching Halt

Toys R Us refuses to die. The hedge funds that own the debt of the bankrupt toy retailer decided to cancel an auction of assets and instead plan to revive the brand and even open new retail outlets. The prospects of another Toys R Us revival could become symbolic: the timing coincided with what looks … Read more