T2108 Update (March 4, 2016) – The Underlying Bullishness of the S&P 500’s Melt Up to 1999.99

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (February 19, 2016) – Buyers Hang On to Bounce from Oversold Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Forex Critical – Speculators In Retreat (Now Bullish on the Australian Dollar)

The following data cover the latest from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders as reported by Oanda from the week of Monday, February 15, 2016. From Oanada: “The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It aggregates the holdings of participants in the U.S. futures markets (primarily based … Read more

Forex Critical: Key Currency Charts for February 11, 2016

Currencies are a transmission mechanism. Since the financial crisis, central banks have become increasingly adept at manipulating them as agents of monetary policy. Traders who ignore currencies may have critical blindspots as stock markets twist and turn through currency transmissions. From time-to-time, I will post “Forex Critical” to highlight currency charts that I believe are … Read more

T2108 Update (February 3, 2016) – The Waterfall and the Whale: An Oversold Near Miss

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 29, 2016) – An Impressive End to A Historic Oversold Period…With Caveats

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 6, 2016) – The S&P 500 Hits 3-Month Low But Still Not Oversold

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Anatomy of A Bottom: Do Not Argue With Sellers – Celebrate With Buyers

So often I see “value investors” who equate the conviction of their position and alacrity of their analysis for being able to pick a bottom in a hapless stock. If the bottom fails, sometimes these investors will continue accumulating stock with each buy delivering the welcome opportunity to lower their cost basis. Meanwhile, losses keep … Read more

A Time to Short the SPDR S&P Retail ETF

Kudos to outdoor retailer REI for actually giving its employees time off on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. REI created an #optoutside campaign to encourage fellow enthusiasts to join vacationing employees outdoors, far away from the Black Friday shopping madness that has become quite the bewildering American consumerist tradition. Back on the asphalt, results … Read more

T2108 Update (October 23, 2015) – An Inspired Market Breakout Yet Still Not Overbought

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more