Above the 40 (October 18, 2018) – A Second Oversold Period Gives 200DMAs A Fresh Challenge

AT40 = 15.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 2nd day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period AT200 = 33.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (up 6 percentage points) VIX = 20.1 (15% increase) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The 200-day moving averages (DMAs) still … Read more

Above the 40DMA (October 16, 2018) – Critical Stock Market 200DMAs Pass the Oversold Test

AT40 = 20.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended a 4-day oversold period AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (up 6 percentage points) VIX = 17.6 (drop of 17.3%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The average oversold period lasts 5 days. The latest … Read more

The Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen Are Still Useful S&P 500 Signals

I often use the Australian dollar (FXA) versus the Japanese yen (JPY) as a proxy for the market’s risk tolerance. If AUD/JPY is rising, the market is bullish. If AUD/JPY is falling, the market is bearish. The correlation is not as consistent as I would like, so I use it with caution, caveats, and context. … Read more

Above the 40 (October 12, 2018) – Confidence and A Conditional Reprieve Amid Oversold Lows

AT40 = 11.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit an intraday low of 9.4%, oversold day #3) AT200 = 32.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (intraday low of 30.0%) VIX = 21.3 (a decrease of 14.7%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of … Read more

Above the 40 (October 11, 2018) – Oversold Conditions Deepen In the Stock Market As Breakdowns Worsen

AT40 = 11.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #2) AT200 = 31.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs () VIX = 23.0 (an increase of 44.0%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The market sell-off is unfolding quickly. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above … Read more