T2108 Update (May 3, 2016) – Overbought Status Finally Ends As the NASDAQ Teeters

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Buy With Confidence: the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF Finally Breaks Out

In January of this year, I finally gave up on the near-term prospects of the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) reversing what I called “The Clinton Bash.” After a rapid cascade downward from The Clinton Bash, IBB made three attempts from November to December, 2015 to reverse those losses. Those attempts came to a crashing … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Beat A Major Retreat from Bearishness on the British Pound

A bottom for the British pound just got more likely. The latest data from the CFTC shows that net speculators beat a major retreat from net short positions against the British pound: Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders The chart shows that speculators have not held such small net short positions since the surge began … Read more

Rising Rate Expectations Add to Changes in Market Sentiment

I have become accustomed to a relatively predictable reaction to moves in the market’s expectations for rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Last week began in the wake of the market finally bringing its expectations for the next rate hike back into 2016. The cascade of impacts from there were predictable: a stronger U.S. … Read more

T2108 Update (March 4, 2016) – The Underlying Bullishness of the S&P 500’s Melt Up to 1999.99

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (February 22, 2016) – A Broadening Rally As Sentiment Continues Improving

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (February 19, 2016) – Buyers Hang On to Bounce from Oversold Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Forex Critical: Key Currency Charts for February 11, 2016

Currencies are a transmission mechanism. Since the financial crisis, central banks have become increasingly adept at manipulating them as agents of monetary policy. Traders who ignore currencies may have critical blindspots as stock markets twist and turn through currency transmissions. From time-to-time, I will post “Forex Critical” to highlight currency charts that I believe are … Read more

T2108 Update (February 3, 2016) – The Waterfall and the Whale: An Oversold Near Miss

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 29, 2016) – An Impressive End to A Historic Oversold Period…With Caveats

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more