Key Lessons from the Brazil ETF Trade

Back in October, 2009 When Brazil won the 2016 Summer Olympics, I heralded the news as an opportunity to invest in a country that promised to grow faster than the United States. The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ) never quite matched its peak from 2008 but managed to ride the wave of a post-recession, commodity … Read more

An Important Correction to the Apple Trading Model

In early April, 2015, I simplified my Apple Trading Model (ATM). I examined the historical data to determine whether Apple’s (AAPL) open contained all the information needed to trade the stock on the day. I had an “ah ha” moment when I discovered that AAPL tended to trade in the same direction of its open. … Read more

T2108 Update (August 19, 2016) – A Stubborn Market Disparity and Potential Big Catches for Bottom-Fishers

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (July 1, 2016) – Almost Like Nothing Happened: Trading Lessons from a Wild Week

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (June 28, 2016) – Brexit Relief Bounds from Oversold’s Edge

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Forex Critical: A Fresh Sense of Heightened Risks

Over the past two weeks or so, I have focused my currency trading on fading the British pound (FXB) and the Australian dollar (FXA). In “The Currency Market Is Lagging A Dramatic Shift in Brexit Sentiment,” I compared market sentiment versus the trading action and made the following claim (emphasis newly made): “If my interpretation … Read more

May Was A Month of Discontent: Significant Shifts In Positions And Sentiment

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 31, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) At the beginning of this month, I claimed an unwind of confidently long positions was imminent for the Australian dollar. {snip} Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com At … Read more

T2108 Update (June 1, 2016) – Charts to Consider While Waiting on the May Jobs Report

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (May 20, 2016) – Chopfest

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more