The Apple Trading Model: The Data Behind A Banner Year

Apple Trading Model - Monday average daily performance conditioned on the previous day's performance from 2018-2020

I have revised and implemented the Apple Trading Model (ATM) for several years. Last year was a banner year for buying and selling AAPL weekly call options in the ATM. The success makes sense given Apple (AAPL), along with so many other stocks, especially in tech, experienced incredible runs. The patterns for the Apple Trading … Read more

An Important Correction to the Apple Trading Model

In early April, 2015, I simplified my Apple Trading Model (ATM). I examined the historical data to determine whether Apple’s (AAPL) open contained all the information needed to trade the stock on the day. I had an “ah ha” moment when I discovered that AAPL tended to trade in the same direction of its open. … Read more

The Apple Pre-Earnings Trade: October, 2015 Edition – An Important Juncture

At the timing of writing, Apple (AAPL) is up 0.6% for the year, essentially flat. When I last wrote about the Apple pre-earnings trade back in January, I looked back at the December 1, 2014 “flash dip” in AAPL’s stock as a lingering harbinger of more selling to come. As it turned out, AAPL sold … Read more

T2108 Update (April 6, 2015) – Bulls Pressing At the Border Again

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Apple Trading Model Simplified

The refinement of the Apple Trading Model (ATM) continues. Seven months ago, I re-explained the Apple Trading Model to provide a consistent reference point. In recent weeks, I have stumbled upon a great simplification that I am almost embarrassed to admit completely escaped me all this time: the probability that Apple (AAPL) closes in the … Read more

Apple Trading Model – Post-Watch Technical Update

Apple (APPL) has officially announced the launch of its latest product, the iWatch. Source: Yahoo! Finance Source: Apple.com This makes a great juncture to provide a quick technical update on Apple and update the classification trees for the Apple Trading Model (ATM). For those of you who are new to the ATM, please read up … Read more

T2108 Update (January 28, 2015) – No Central Bank Salve This Time

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (December 1, 2014) – From Topping To Chopping and An Apple “Flash Dip”

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 18, 2014) – Onward and Upward

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Apple Trading Model (Re)Explained

The Apple Trading Model (ATM) has become one of my favorite trading tools. I am writing this post to serve as a clear and comprehensive reference point when I write about it in future posts. Interested traders should bookmark this page. (As of writing, my last major AAPL post was another sentiment analysis that ended … Read more