ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Central banks are getting pretty good at having it both ways. Despite two rate hikes, one in July and one in September, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has talked its way to a net no change in the Canadian dollar (FXC) versus the U.S. dollar (DXY0). Source: FreeStockCharts.com As the chart above shows, the Canadian … Read more
AT40 = 63.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended 12 straight days overbought AT200 = 58.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.1 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (downgrade from bullish) Commentary Just when I thought it was safe to stay bullish, the stock … Read more
AT40 = 67.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended 12 straight days overbought AT200 = 60.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.0 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary On Monday, the S&P 500 (SPY) went into a bearish divergence with AT40 (T2108), the percentage … Read more
AT40 = 72.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – overbought day #12 AT200 = 60.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.6 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary A week ago I described “lift-off” for an extended overbought period for the stock market. However, the market … Read more
AT40 = 73.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – overbought day #7 AT200 = 59.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.7 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary This is what a lift-off for an extended overbought rally looks like. The S&P 500 (SPY) followed its … Read more
AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (high of 69.4%) AT200 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I noted how the stock market bent but stubbornly refused to … Read more
On September 19th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its last meeting on monetary policy (September 5, 2017). Iron ore was perhaps the biggest headline coming out of those minutes. Surprisingly, the RBA called a top in the price of iron ore (emphasis mine): “Iron ore prices had been supported at … Read more
“There’s already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happen sooner than markets currently expect… …The need for internal balance – to use up wasteful spare capacity while achieving the inflation target – will likely require gradual and limited interest rate increases … Read more
AT40 = 60.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary North Korea launched another ballistic missile over Japan, this one with enough range to hit Guam. The general market response was … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 14, 2017. Click here to read the entire piece.) On June 12, 2016, I effectively threw in the towel on the Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN) and switched to a shorter-term trading strategy. Less than a month later, I concluded that … Read more