ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Two weeks ago I wrote how a “A DeepSeek Dive and A Tariff Toll” created the next shift in the market’s technical outlook. I stepped back from a bullish position on the market as a result. Now, a familiar theme has unfolded with the stock market looking ready to leave its latest … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The week opened with market breadth dropping to within five percentage points of the oversold threshold. This was the closest encounter with oversold since late October, 2023. The stock market never looked back from there. A favorable mid-week inflation report helped propel the stock market with the assistance of declining long-term bond … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Investopedia defines the Santa Rally very precisely: “A Santa Claus rally refers to the sustained increases found in the stock market during the last five trading days of December through the first two trading days of January.” Based on this definition, Santa is failing…and just as the stock market risks a January … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The dust is settling ever so slightly on the stock market’s post-Fed plunge. The stock market shifted from euphoria to oversold on a day that woke up everyone to a potentially new market reality. I say “potentially” because all year the market has been hit with bearish catalysts and quickly bounced back … Read more
Stock Market Commentary If you followed December’s deterioration in market breadth and/or paid attention to the inflation numbers and the smoke signals from the Federal Reserve, today’s market sell-off does not surprise you. What surprises me at the time of writing is the complete collapse in market breadth. The stock market essentially plunged from euphoria … Read more
TSLA Revs Higher Incredibly, Tesla Inc (TSLA) has nearly doubled since a loud thud greeted the company’s robotaxi rollout. That bearish breakdown below support at the 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line in the chart below) now looks quite quaint. Since then, a 21.9% post-earnings gain and an initial 14.8% post-earnings pop have ignited … Read more
Stock Market Commentary It probably seems odd using “turnaround” as a descriptor for December’s trading. After all, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ continued their respective melt-up trading action. Yet, small caps diverged and trickled downward all week. So I am intrigued by a collection of stocks that are making and often completing turnarounds from … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Holiday trading last week was deceptively lazy. The indices did a lot of churning, yet the S&P 500 and the ETF of small caps each made all-time highs at some point. A good number of individual stocks developed and followed through on bullish setups. For example, all week long, new highs greatly … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market has a natural law of “physics.” Overly enthusiastic trading, whether up or down, eventually meets an opposite and sometimes equal force. This natural instability of extremes forms a basis of my market breadth trading rules. The enthusiastic post-election surge exhausted buyers enough to create a post-election reversal. Moreover, my … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve took the stage right after the U.S. presidential election. The Federal Reserve and Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered as expected. The unrelenting bulls had no reason to stop the momentum from the post-election rally. Powell stuck to the Fed’s script and unrelenting bulls kept charging. The uneventful meeting had … Read more