A Stock Market Stuck In An Obvious Trading Range Still Produces A Rich Set of Expectations – Above the 40 (August 29, 2019)

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more

Home Builder Trade: A Timely Exit or An Opportunity for A Refresh?

With just one day to go until expiration of the short side, my Aug/Oct $39 calendar call spread on the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its initial profit target. I was hoping the short side would expire worthless, and I could ride the long side expiring in October into the launch … Read more

Tesla: New Trading Strategies for A Fresh Breakdown and New Price Range

The monthly chart of Tesla (TSLA) suggests the stock has entered a lower trading range. If this range fails, there are likely two more lines of firm support before the stock hits an air pocket that would threaten all the steep gains from 2013.

The Short-Term Breakdown The technical conditions for Tesla (TSLA) have greatly deteriorated since I wrote about short-term and long-term trading strategies on the stock. I focused on two main trading strategies: 1) a longer-term covered call strategy for bullish investors fortunate enough to own 100+ shares of stock and 2) what I considered at the … Read more

Trade War Pairs Trade: Best Buy Vs. Emerging Markets

Best Buy (BBY) dropped 10.8% on news of the expansion of Trump's Trade War with China.

The Extreme: Best Buy Regular readers know that my favorite trades come on the heels of extremes in financial conditions. After President Trump announced a 10% tariff on $300B of Chinese imports, I saw a lot of extremes that made me sit up and take notice. One of the biggest extremes occurred in the shares … Read more

In Search of the Next Apple Pre-Earnings Trade

It was just this past weekend when I laid out my latest strategy trading Apple (AAPL) pre-earnings including updated historical data. Much to my surprise, my calendar call spread closed out at its pre-earnings profit target as AAPL followed through on Tuesday from Monday’s big 2.3% rebound. (As a reminder, my ideal scenario featured the … Read more