T2108 Update (June 16, 2016) – Synchronized Whiplash

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Market Sentiment Still Supporting Higher Gold Prices

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 22, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Sometimes the test of a change in sentiment is not in the pace of the new trend, but instead in the behavior after that trend first gets tested. {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com … Read more

Fed Minutes Put A Bow On Earlier Fedspeak on Rate Hikes

“Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June…Some … Read more

T2108 Update (April 20, 2016) – Stock Breakouts and Market Lift-Off

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (February 24, 2016) – Buyers Stage A Notable Reversal As the JP Morgan Bottom Holds

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

ConocoPhillips: A Cautionary Tale from the Oil Patch

ConocoPhillips (COP) announced Q4 and full year 2015 financial results on the morning of February 4, 2016. The news included a capitulation to the on-going deterioration of business conditions in the oil patch: COP slashed its dividend by two-thirds: “ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today announced it is taking actions to maintain its strong balance sheet in … Read more

Bullard Helps Push Out the Next Rate Hike Further Into the Year

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 15, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The recent movements in crude oil prices are very substantial in historical context. Headline inflation will return to target once oil prices stabilize, but recent further declines in global oil prices … Read more

T2108 Update (January 28, 2016) – Full Bull While Peering Over the Edge of An Extended Oversold Period

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

(Vainly) In Search of the Correlation Between Oil and the S&P 500

We hear the relationship claimed so casually and so frequently, we probably no longer give it a second thought. For example, on December 30th, the S&P 500 (SPY) lost 0.7%. Searching for an explanation, CNBC ran the all-too familiar headline “Dow closes down triple digits as oil slide weighs.” Oil lost 3.3% on the day … Read more

Doubling Down on the United States Oil ETF While Oil-Related Names Gain A Reprieve from Calamity

The trade on a rangebound United States Oil (USO) is now failing (see “The Commodities Crash Accelerates: Scenarios for Trading Oil” for a description). Oil has continued its collapse past the historic 2009 lows and has helped to drive USO to fresh all-time lows. Source: US. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate … Read more