A Market Breadth Breakdown Belies Tech Strength – The Market Breadth

A Market Breadth Breakdown Belies Tech Strength – The Market Breadth (Source: Kecko on Flickr at https://www.flickr.com/photos/70981241@N00/16394025055)

Stock Market Commentary Inflation was the big story last week. I covered the details in “Bonds Try to Weigh on A Market Trying Harder to Look Past Stabilizing Inflation“. The stock market had a curiously mixed reaction that highlighted an on-going bearish divergence for the month of December. A market breadth breakdown contradicted impressive strength … Read more

A Lazy Holiday Week Sets Up December Buys – The Market Breadth

The S&P 500 (SPY) began to stagnate but still hit new all-time highs.

Stock Market Commentary Holiday trading last week was deceptively lazy. The indices did a lot of churning, yet the S&P 500 and the ETF of small caps each made all-time highs at some point. A good number of individual stocks developed and followed through on bullish setups. For example, all week long, new highs greatly … Read more

Support Holds Firm Ahead of Holiday Week – The Market Breadth

Support Holds Firm Ahead of Holiday Week – The Market Breadth (Credit: David Kingham, https://www.flickr.com/photos/31583394@N04/8406338206)

Stock Market Commentary Imagine that. Key support holds firm across the major indices. A telling post-election reversal turned into proof positive that unrelenting bulls remain all-in for the stock market. Not even a further escalation in World War 3 brought pause to the rebounds off support (Russia fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine and … Read more

Trump Flips the Post-Election Script, The Fed’s Got Next – The Market Breadth

Trump Flips the Post-Election Script, The Fed’s Got Next – The Market Breadth (credit: https://members.asicentral.com/news/strategy/october-2024/what-i-voted-stickers-look-like-across-the-us-this-election/)

Stock Market Commentary Financial markets are supposed to act like discounting mechanisms which use the wisdom of the crowd to anticipate important events. The stock market stalled and then broke down ahead of the election. Excluding a last minute rush to buy on election day, I assumed the stock market might have a muted reaction … Read more

Fades Press On Market Supports Ahead of the Election – The Market Breadth

fade (Credit: Hercules Wrestling the Bull by carfull...from Wyoming on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary Fades were on display, especially on Thursday, as the stock market showed signs of exhaustion. Bad news in and for the semiconductor industry seemed to motivate sellers. For example, earnings for Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) seemed to release some steam on hyped expectations for the AI chips both companies will … Read more

Stocks Stand By While China and Yen Surge – The Market Breadth

stand by (Credit: Mark Hodson Photos, www.101holidays.co.uk)

Stock Market Commentary The U.S. stock market hardly reflected last week’s action-packed news. China scrambled to address a weakening economy with a massive stimulus program with news rolling nearly all week. In Japan, voters elected a Prime Minister who favors a stronger currency in the Japanese yen (FXY). Capping the anti-climactic feeling in U.S. stocks, … Read more

A Return to the Giddy Anticipation of Rate Cuts – Market Breadth

A Return to the Giddy Anticipation of Rate Cuts - Market Breadth (Credit: Reuters)

Stock Market Commentary The stock market poetically swung from the depths of despair with a seasonal September drawdown to a sharp rebound in giddy anticipation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The highly anticipated meeting has the potential to set the market’s tone for the remainder of the year. If Chair Jerome … Read more

SearchGPT Shoves Google to A Footnote for the Generative AI Trade

Alphabet, Inc (GOOG) suffered a confirmed 50DMA breakdown on the heels of poorly received earnings and next SearchGPT.

Alphabet, Inc (GOOG) was my favorite stock in my generative AI trade. No more. After OpenAI announced SearchGPT, GOOG fell 3.0%. The decline followed a 5.0% post-earnings loss and confirmed a bearish breakdown below the 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line in the chart below). While SearchGPT is still a prototype, even the idea … Read more

Market Breadth Surges Toward Overbought As Indices Get Toppy – The Market Breadth

Market Breadth Surges Toward Overbought As Indices Get Toppy

Stock Market Commentary Last week further emphasized the continuation of notable divergence from Q2 to Q3. This time, soft inflation data caused a surge in rate cut anticipation that in turn drove a significant rotation away from big cap growth and tech stocks and toward small caps and a whole host of other rate sensitive … Read more

Q3 Takes the Q2 Baton of Notable Divergence – The Market Breadth

Q3 Takes the Q2 Baton of Notable Divergence – The Market Breadth (Credit: Richard Schneider, Baton Pass Flying at 120 mph on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary The second quarter of the year ended with notable divergence. The third quarter picked up where the second quarter left off. Q3 took the Q2 baton of notable divergence, sending big cap stocks ever higher while leaving most of the market further behind. The jobs report seemed to be strong enough and … Read more