Above the 40 (June 1, 2018) – Uncomfortable Divergences Weigh On the Stock Market’s Manic Rally

AT40 = 62.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a near 4-month high) VIX = 13.5 (down 12.8%) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary A day like this past Friday makes me want to be bullish about the entire stock … Read more

Above the 40 (May 22, 2018) – An Overbought Threshold Rejects A Stock Market With Crossed Signals

AT40 = 65.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a high at 69.7%) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market keeps crossing up as headlines and macro events push the market one way and … Read more

Above the 40 (May 18, 2018) – Stock Market Drift Stalls Bearish Signal

AT40 = 64.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Looks like there was a good reason to wait on flipping my short-term trading call back to (cautiously) bearish. After pointing out … Read more

Above the 40 (May 9, 2018) – More Sentiment Changes with Fresh Breakouts for the Stock Market

AT40 = 60.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The “Apple Temptation” of the stock market seems to be working. For starters, after a 3 week run with a cautiously bearish … Read more

Above the 40 (May 4, 2018) – The Apple Temptation of the Stock Market

AT40 = 53.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.8 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary I was right to be bearish last week…until the very last day when all at once the market reversed almost all … Read more

Above the 40 (April 13, 2018) – The Bears Engulf An Otherwise Uplifting Week for the Stock Market

AT40 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 2.0% for the week. Yet the week felt like a loser given the way it ended. The … Read more

Above the 40 (April 6, 2018) – Barbarians Posturing At the S&P 500’s Support

AT40 = 37.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The week ended badly with a 2.2% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY). The week began with the exact same … Read more

Above the 40 (March 29, 2018) – A Stock Market Bent Out of Shape But Not Quite Broken

AT40 = 38.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 42.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The bears did their best to spook the market, but they failed to break it down. The foundations felt wobbly for most … Read more

Materials Build On A Bearish Breakdown

This picture is exactly what I do not want to see as the stock market struggles to hold critical technical supports: a major index of economically-sensitive stocks confirming a breakdown of support at its 200-day moving average (DMA). The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) lost 1.3% on a day when the S&P 500 (SPY) … Read more

Above the 40 (March 23, 2018) – A Stock Market From Another Planet: Yet Another Oversold Test Looms

AT40 = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 37.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-year closing low) VIX = 24.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary On Friday, President Trump characterized the pre-Trump stock market as something “from another planet.” Surely he meant the last … Read more