ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 52.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (4-month high)AT200 = 22.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (4-week high)VIX = 18.2 (5-week low)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The major indices are still showing signs of exhaustion, but the sellers have yet to wrest back control … Read more
AT40 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1-month high)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (3-week high)VIX = 20.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Just as the last oversold period exceeded expectations to an extreme downside, the rebound out of the oversold period is … Read more
LGI Homes (LGIH) released a strong sales report that granted investors in home builders a much needed sigh of relief. On January 7, 2019 (mislabeled as the 4th in the press release), LGIH announced: …an all-time record for home closings during a single month with 884 homes closed in December 2018, representing year-over-year growth of … Read more
I saw a flicker of hope for home builders in the May Housing Market Review. Traders decided to snuff that flicker out very quickly afterward. When I wrote June’s housing market review and described a “struggling flicker,” the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was once again bouncing off the bottom of 2018’s trading range. … Read more
AT40 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #8)AT200 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 30.4 (down 15.7%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Pick your favorite catalyst or explanation. I am sure there is good news (or the absence of bad news) out … Read more
AT40 = 3.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #7, 10-year low!)AT200 = 8.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (9 1/2- year low!)VIX = 36.1 (1-day gain of 20.0%, 10 1/2- month high)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (oh so many caveats below!) Commentary Although it’s been … Read more
AT40 = 19.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day oversold)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (34-month low)VIX = 21.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryThe stock market is oversold again as a bearish divergence to start the week came to its “logical conclusion.” AT40 (T2108), … Read more
It was the soundbite on the U.S. housing market heard from near and far: Despite a healthy economy, we are seeing a moderation in demand. Fourth quarter contracts declined 15% in dollars and 13% in units compared to a difficult comp from 1 year ago. Fourth quarter demand flowed to a per community pace more … Read more
AT40 = 23.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (low of 18.9%)AT200 = 22.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 32-month low)VIX = 22.6 (as high as 25.9)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryIt was a wild day in the stock market, but the market still avoided closing … Read more
AT40 = 25.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 23.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just off a 32-month low)VIX = 23.2 (as high as 24.7)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryI am surprised the stock market has yet to close in oversold conditions. AT40 (T2108), the … Read more