ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
Stock Market Commentary A decisive end to the extended overbought period signaled the arrival of bearish conditions last week. Bears boldly sold for one more day before a “stock bulls taunt” forced suddenly hesitant bears into a partial retreat. A sharp market divergence is now taking hold. While the major indices rallied off support and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Bring on the bears…The process terminating a historically extended overbought period started with the first trading day of the year. While the S&P 500 recovered from the year’s initial fit of selling, small caps did not. The sagging fortunes of small caps have now returned the related ETF to bear market territory. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Exactly two weeks ago, the stock market fell out of bed. I called the abrupt move the rally’s third strike. However, buyers jumped right back into the fray and overcame that third strike with a rally right to the second to last trading day of the year. So far, the new year … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Signature stock market moments capped a remarkable year for the stock market. Two months of nearly relentless buying delivered a stunning 70% of the gains for the S&P 500 in 2023 after bulls exploded out of oversold trading conditions. Housing-related stocks soared even more as financial markets celebrate the presumed end of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Despite strike one and strike two against the market rally, buyers are stretching out this overbought period. The jobs report for November seemed to further support the case of an economy that survived the Fed’s rate hike cycle even as the case recedes for near-term rate cuts. The stock market responded by … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The economic numbers keep coming up roses for the stock market. Last week’s celebration was driven by a soft inflation report for October that further emboldened buyers. A fresh surge in bond prices (lower yield) led the way as small caps in particular rocketed higher. The relentless buying pressure also solidified the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Downtrends are over. Bullish breakouts abound. Sellers got one chance last week to try to keep the cork in the bottle of the oversold bounce, but they failed. The stock market insisted on pushing right through. With little time to rest, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ ended the week with major … Read more
The bear market intrusion to the oversold period gave way to an explosion of bullish trading action this week. The maximum drawdown of October for the S&P 500 (SPY) was 4.0% well above the average for the month. This extreme move provided the perfect setup for the sharpness of the current oversold bounce. The rubber … Read more
Stock Market Commentary At the end of September, I asked skeptically whether an oversold bounce could prevent an October swoon. As I suspected at the time, the answer turned out to be no. The market-moving headlines for October have included weighty, tragic, and alarming news making for a demotivating trading environment. An oversold bounce earlier … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The economist “consensus” expectations for September job growth missed the mark by a mile, 336,000 actual versus 170,000 projected. These big misses represent the on-going struggles of conventional economics to understand the dynamics of today’s post-pandemic economy. Initially, the good jobs news frightened financial markets which think of good news as bad … Read more