Apple’s Important Macro and Forex Calls and Likely Post-Earnings Recovery

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Like all companies with extensive international presence, Apple took a hit from the strong dollar (UUP)… {snip} Apple appears to expect continued strength in the U.S. dollar as the company … Read more

Australian Dollar Confirms Stock Rally As It Re-Emerges As A Leading ‘Risk-On’ Currency

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar’s year-to-date performance against the U.S. dollar (FXA) is back to even. The leading “risk-on” currency has fought back from a large one month slide that featured losses of … Read more

BHP’s Price Warning Brings the Commodity Crash Playbook Back In Focus

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) BHP Billiton (BHP) Chairman Jacques Nasser raised eyebrows in a discussion with reporters on Wednesday, May 16th when he indicated that commodity prices are likely to keep falling for now: “The … Read more

Chart Review: Larger Downside Looms As Baidu Fails Resistance

After reporting earnings on the evening of April 24, Baidu (BIDU) dropped 10% or so in after-hours trading. By the time time trading opened the next day that loss was cut to just 4.5%. At the highs of that day, BIDU actually managed to recover all its post-earnings losses. I typically characterize such a recovery … Read more

2012 Has Delivered Some Attractive Bargains In Commodities

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 23, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodity stocks have generally underperformed the stock market in 2012. I still cannot decide whether this weakness represents a leading indicator of broader weakness to come or a fortuitous relief to … Read more

T2108 Update – March 26, 2012 (All Systems Go On the Follow-Through)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 62% VIX Status: 14.3% … Read more

T2108 Update – March 22, 2012 (Maintaining Bullish Bias Even As Bearish Case Grows)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 49% VIX Status: 15.6% … Read more

Chart Review: Will Buyers Step Up One More Time As FXI Breaks Down Again?

Two weeks ago, the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) broke down below its 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) just 5-6 weeks after an important breakout above these MAs. Buyers seemed to treat this as an opportunity to get into FXI before the breakout move resumed. Over the past two days, FXI has … Read more

Potentially Ominous Breakdown for Caterpillar (CAT)

The last time Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) failed a retest of all-time highs was in the middle of 2008. The stock broke down in June and it was mostly downhill from there for another year. On Tuesday, March 6th, Caterpillar confirmed another failed retest of an all-time high by breaking down below its 50DMA. Source of … Read more

Earnings Warning By GrafTech International Highlights Weak Solar And Weakening Europe

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 27, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) GrafTech International Ltd (GTI) is a small company with a $1.86B market cap whose fourth quarter and full year 2011 earnings report shed additional light on the weak solar sector and … Read more