T2108 Update (September 6, 2012) – Bearish Undertones Brushed Away In A Single Swipe

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

Sifting Through the Rubble of Retail High-Flyers for Potential Trades – Long and Short

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The HOLDRS Retail ETF (RTH) made new all-time highs in late July, and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has remained in a trading range since failing a retest of its … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Declares Soft-Landing In China, Focuses On Europe

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 7, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The immediate response to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monetary policy decision was muted, but I think the statement spoke volumes. The RBA essentially declared a soft economic landing in … Read more

Apple’s Important Macro and Forex Calls and Likely Post-Earnings Recovery

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Like all companies with extensive international presence, Apple took a hit from the strong dollar (UUP)… {snip} Apple appears to expect continued strength in the U.S. dollar as the company … Read more

Australian Dollar Confirms Stock Rally As It Re-Emerges As A Leading ‘Risk-On’ Currency

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar’s year-to-date performance against the U.S. dollar (FXA) is back to even. The leading “risk-on” currency has fought back from a large one month slide that featured losses of … Read more

BHP’s Price Warning Brings the Commodity Crash Playbook Back In Focus

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) BHP Billiton (BHP) Chairman Jacques Nasser raised eyebrows in a discussion with reporters on Wednesday, May 16th when he indicated that commodity prices are likely to keep falling for now: “The … Read more

Chart Review: Larger Downside Looms As Baidu Fails Resistance

After reporting earnings on the evening of April 24, Baidu (BIDU) dropped 10% or so in after-hours trading. By the time time trading opened the next day that loss was cut to just 4.5%. At the highs of that day, BIDU actually managed to recover all its post-earnings losses. I typically characterize such a recovery … Read more

2012 Has Delivered Some Attractive Bargains In Commodities

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 23, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodity stocks have generally underperformed the stock market in 2012. I still cannot decide whether this weakness represents a leading indicator of broader weakness to come or a fortuitous relief to … Read more

T2108 Update – March 26, 2012 (All Systems Go On the Follow-Through)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 62% VIX Status: 14.3% … Read more

T2108 Update – March 22, 2012 (Maintaining Bullish Bias Even As Bearish Case Grows)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 49% VIX Status: 15.6% … Read more