News of Coffee Surplus Knocks Prices Down Even As Farmers Balk

The iPath Bloomberg Coffee SubTR ETN (JO) hit the fresh all-time low that I did not think would happen. Source: The proximate news was a report of surplus from the CoffeeNetwork as reported by Reuters (I could not find mention of this forecast on the group’s twitter or Facebook feeds). According to Reuters: “The … Read more

The Commodity Crash Takes A Pause: An Attractive Trade on Coffee

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The crash in commodities continues nearly unabated against a wide swath of commodities. The selling has become so extreme that I have started moving from following the trends downward to watching … Read more

Starbucks Becomes A Short As 2012’s Gains Disappear

Ahead of Starbucks’ July earnings report, I warned that the stock was at a critical juncture. I concluded that Starbucks (SBUX) becomes a compelling short if it broke down through support. On Friday, SBUX broke down and at one point had erased all its gains for the year. Source: The -9.4% post-earnings performance was … Read more

Chart Review: Starbucks At A Very Critical Juncture

On July 23, Starbucks (SBUX) tested its 200-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since last October. This support held as the general stock market rallied into the close. This level also happened to coincide with SBUX’s breakout in March as SBUX moved on to fresh all-time highs. Source: If SBUX fails to … Read more

2012 Has Delivered Some Attractive Bargains In Commodities

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 23, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodity stocks have generally underperformed the stock market in 2012. I still cannot decide whether this weakness represents a leading indicator of broader weakness to come or a fortuitous relief to … Read more

Coping with Destabilizing Coffee Prices

Coffee prices have soared along with most other commodities over the past year and more. For example, the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Total Return Sub-Index ETN (aka JO) is up 70% since the end of 2009. The last earnings results from Starbucks (SBUX) demonstrated the stress from these higher coffee prices. The company slightly lowered … Read more