Overbought Conditions Remain Elusive As Market Wavers Ahead of the Fed – Above the 40 (July 19, 2019)

AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = ~52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the S&P 500 (SPY) made a new all-time, and I was expecting a trip into overbought conditions. AT40 … Read more

One Way to Trade Apple’s Stock Ahead of Earnings

Historic Bearishness In Apple Bloomberg published an article on July 8th titled “Wall Street Hasn’t Been This Pessimistic on Apple in Decades.” Out of 57 analyst ratings, 5 were outright sells on AAPL. Amazingly, AAPL has not attracted this many bears since at least 1997. Of course, 10% of analysts is a small fraction and … Read more

Lennar Hit Hardest By the Weight of Tepid Housing Starts

Lennar (LEN) continues to suffer post-earnings weakness. Its close at 200DMA support marks a closing 4-month low.

My wait for an entry point to buy Lennar (LEN) continues. On a day with multiple warning signs about the U.S. economy from companies like Csx Corp (CSX), the Census Bureau piled on with lukewarm data on housing starts. While single-family housing starts for June increased month-over-month by 3.5% to 847,000, housing starts decreased on … Read more

Bitcoin Faces Important Price Test As Sentiment Wanes Again

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) faces down an important test of its uptrending 50DMA right at the round-number $10,000 level.

As Bitcoin (BTC/USD) pulls back again to the $10,000 level, there is a lot of news swirling to explain the sell-off. Google Trends still works as a way to cut through the haze on Bitcoin. Fresh Validation for The Google Trend Momentum Check When Bitcoin ended its last parabolic run on June 26, Google Trends … Read more

Rate Cut Cheer Not Yet Enough to Push Stock Market To Overbought – Above the 40 (July 12, 2019)

After a bullish run-up, AT40 (T2108) struggled all week to break through the overbought threshold.

AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 12.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary After the report on June jobs, financial markets got … Read more