How to Warn Investors and Guarantee A Correct Prediction

The Warning The CNBC headline warned investors: “Widespread overconfidence is putting investors in a dangerous situation, Invesco’s Kristina Hooper warns.” I typically skip right past such headlines. Yet my recent switch to a cautiously bearish short-term trading call made me more receptive to the big tease. I expected to read stock market predictions about the … Read more

New Bearish Divergence Shreds the Stock Trading Script – Above the 40 (August 21, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) is dropping at a rapid clip despite the stock market's melt-up.

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 60.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 7 overbought trading days)AT200 = 42.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages … Read more

S&P 500 Rejoins the All-Time High Club As Overbought Conditions End – Above the 40 (August 18, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 69.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 7 overbought trading days)AT200 = 44.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary A stock market that keeps its focus on positive catalysts finally gained enough … Read more

Bitcoin: A Breakout After A Refreshing Pause

Two weeks ago, I examined the sharp pullback in Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and concluded that the cryptocurrency was taking a refreshing pause ahead of the next breakout. The breakout is here. This breakout is a double bonus as it represents a bullish (upside) resolution to a Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze. Such breakouts are tradeable with well-defined … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Faces Down the Stimulus Stalemate – Above the 40 (August 14, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 76.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (6th day overbought)AT200 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.1Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary While the politicians in Washington D.C. play a game of chicken with the economy, the … Read more