Four Fed Rate Hikes This Year? Not Even Close

New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had his say with Congress this week and some of the conventional financial media and pundits have been shrill with speculation about the potential for four rate hikes in 2018 as a result of Powell’s word choices and tone. This number of hikes is reportedly one more hike than … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Watch the Japanese Yen Fall to A New Edge

A month ago, I described the Japanese yen (FXY) as a currency on edge given a sharp and abrupt response to a feared tightening cycle from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). So far, no tightening cycle has launched, but the yen has steadily strengthened over the last month. For example, USD/JPY broke down below support … Read more

Forex Critical: The Japanese Yen On Edge

I wrote little about the Japanese yen (FXY) over the past year or more. It’s time to pay closer attention. As every forex trader knows by now, on Tuesday, January 9th the Bank of Japan (BoJ) slowed down its purchase of bonds with more than 10 years maturity. The yields of these bonds ticked up … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Ride the Wave Against the Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. USD/JPY peaked in December, 2016, but it looks like the sell-off bottomed out in April. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This yen weakness has been particularly evident against strong currencies, like the euro (FXE), … Read more

Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Finally Gets Relief – ISM Manufacturing to the Rescue

It was a holiday shortened trading day in the U.S., but it was enough time to deliver a bit of relief for the U.S. dollar index (DXY0). The most significant move for the U.S. dollar was against the ever-weakening Japanese yen (FXY). USD/JPY broke out and stayed above resistance at its uptrending 200-day moving average … Read more