ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
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Clearly, I am not yet bearish enough on the Japanese yen. When the U.S. dollar last traded at 100 versus the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), the dollar completed a 12.7% rally from its lows in December, 2008 and January, 2009. This was also the last time the U.S. dollar generated as large and sustained a rally … Read more
Almost two weeks ago, I underlined the case for on-going weakness in the Japanese yen. The U.S. dollar had rallied to 80.60 against the yen (USD/JPY) in almost a straight line. I chose that point to close out my yen shorts to wait for what I thought would be an inevitable pullback from such a … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 31, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The path for a peak in the Japanese yen is turning into a much more arduous one that I had hoped. Last week, I pointed to an imminent acceleration in purchases … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 22, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Via an extremely strong Japanese yen, the world is offering Japan a steep discount on its assets. On January 19, 2011, Japanese Finance Minister, Yukio Edano, seemed to indicate that Japan … Read more
This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) It seems that the U.S. market has grown weary of worrying about the euro. The euro has lost 4.5% versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD)(FXE) since December 9, 2011 while the S&P … Read more
This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 30, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) Call it a minor victory for Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi who declared his country is in “a war of nerves” with markets over the value of its currency given the … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) The relief rally for the U.S. dollar that I expected after the S&P downgrade of U.S. government debt did not materialize last week. {snip}…The dollar gained 1.6% over the franc BUT not until after the … Read more
The Federal Reserve meets and decides monetary policy on Tuesday right in the middle of the most tumultuous time for global financial markets perhaps since the March, 2009 lows. As the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is furiously printing money to buttress its financial system and promote calm, I fully expect the Fed to issue a … Read more
I have written several pieces discussing the likelihood of a dollar relief rally and now the increasing momentum of that rally. I recently concluded that the British pound’s break of technical support at the 50-day moving average (DMA) all but confirmed the dollar index’s imminent rendezvous with its 200DMA. However, in all these pieces, I … Read more