A Bearish Divergence Now Behind, Overbought Awaits for Stocks – Above the 40 (December 20, 2019)

AT40 (T2108) finally broke out of an extended 2-month trading range and looks ready to challenge the overbought threshold.

AT40 = 65.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 59.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just under high for 2019 of 60.2%)VIX = 12.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The bearish divergence finally ended between a range-bound AT40 (T2108) and an S&P 500 (SPY) steadily … Read more

Tesla: Post Cybertruck Trading Strategies

The Breakdown Big events can create distinct trading goalposts. Elon Musk’s big reveal for the Cybertruck created the next big goalpost for Tesla (TSLA). The event delivered a bonus with the amount of derision and scorn heaped upon the stark and sharp ugliness of the truck and the big double fail on the test of … Read more

A Narrowing Rally and A Sentiment Shift Define the Stock Market – Above the 40 (October 25, 2019)

AT40 = 59.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral (see below) Stock Market Commentary A Sufficient Resolution I still harbor lingering skepticism, but the S&P 500’s recovery from the last hiccup and its subsequent slow … Read more

Part Optimism, Part Skepticism from A Partial Trade Deal – Above the 40 (October 11, 2019)

AT40 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Re-Entry Two Fridays ago, buyers took the S&P 500 (SPY) back above its 50-day moving average (DMA). It was yet … Read more

Tesla: New Trading Strategies for A Fresh Breakdown and New Price Range

The monthly chart of Tesla (TSLA) suggests the stock has entered a lower trading range. If this range fails, there are likely two more lines of firm support before the stock hits an air pocket that would threaten all the steep gains from 2013.

The Short-Term Breakdown The technical conditions for Tesla (TSLA) have greatly deteriorated since I wrote about short-term and long-term trading strategies on the stock. I focused on two main trading strategies: 1) a longer-term covered call strategy for bullish investors fortunate enough to own 100+ shares of stock and 2) what I considered at the … Read more

Overbought Conditions Remain Elusive As Market Wavers Ahead of the Fed – Above the 40 (July 19, 2019)

AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = ~52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the S&P 500 (SPY) made a new all-time, and I was expecting a trip into overbought conditions. AT40 … Read more

Bearish Resistance Won the Week Against Major Indices – More Churn Ahead: Above the 40 (May 17, 2019)

AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A day after the major indices flipped from bullish support to bearish resistance, buyers rallied these indices through resistance. It was a tenuous … Read more

Above the 40 (May 3, 2019) – A Faithful Stock Market Push Through Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 63.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is keeping the faith. The previous week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represented well the … Read more

Above the 40 (April 26, 2019) – Stock Market Highs Continue Cradling Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 61.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral (change from bearish) Stock Market Commentary The week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represents well the state of the stock market: … Read more

Above the 40 (March 22, 2019) – Tension Headache: Dovish Fed Fails to Keep Market Complacent to Risks

AT40 = 45.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2+ month low)AT200 = 38.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.5 (20.9% gain)Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Friday’s trading action provided delayed confirmation of my short-term bearish trading call. The week previous to the last, … Read more